Route profile
EWR→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Minneapolis, 1,008 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 18% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,866 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
EWR → MSP arrives on time 78.1% of the time; the return trip, MSP → EWR, arrives on time 77.6% of the time.
EWR → MSP spends 29.2 minutes on the ground on a 1,008-mile trip: 23.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 6.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where EWR to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
EWR to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 75.5% arrive on time, 9.5 points ahead of the 66.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.1 points.
EWR to MSP struggles most at 6 PM: 62.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 5.2 points behind the 67.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
March is kinder to EWR to MSP than to routes of similar length: 85.4% on time against 75.7%, 9.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
United Airlines’ flights on EWR to MSP arrive on time 74.5% of the time, 6 points below the 80.5% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
Republic Airways does better on EWR to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 86.3% on time here, 82.1% there, 4.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
EWR to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 75.5% | routes of similar length | 66.0% | +9.5 pts | 216 here, 147,347 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 62.2% | routes of similar length | 67.4% | −5.2 pts | 827 here, 186,667 there |
| Month: March | 85.4% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | +9.7 pts | 519 here, 258,837 there |
| Airline: United Airlines | 74.5% | routes of similar length | 80.5% | −6.0 pts | 1,744 here, 432,031 there |
| Airline: Republic Airways | 86.3% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | +4.2 pts | 1,144 here, 56,330 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,008 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why EWR → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
EWR → MSP cancelled 168 of 6,866 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 41. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 58.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 70 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 168 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
98 cancellations, 58.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
45 cancellations, 26.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
25 cancellations, 14.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
168 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
61 min late
against a median of 9 min early
EWR → MSP has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 9 min early, but the worst tenth are 70 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,866 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.45% of the time and diverts 0.15% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,688 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 61 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,866 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.6% of the time, against 65.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 23.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 89.9% on time from 1,224 flights
- 7 AM: 84.0% on time from 288 flights
- 8 AM: 87.2% on time from 225 flights
- 9 AM: 83.5% on time from 332 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 82.4% on time from 336 flights
- 12 PM: 78.8% on time from 778 flights
- 1 PM: 82.1% on time from 212 flights
- 2 PM: 77.4% on time from 656 flights
- 3 PM: 76.3% on time from 764 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 62.2% on time from 848 flights
- 7 PM: 67.8% on time from 158 flights
- 8 PM: 75.5% on time from 224 flights
- 9 PM: 68.9% on time from 650 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why EWR → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → MSP, at 42.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 65.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,870 | 77.3% | 2.25% | -9 min | 11.4% |
| United Airlines | 1,784 | 74.5% | 2.02% | -7 min | 12.0% |
| Republic Airways | 1,191 | 86.3% | 3.78% | -14 min | 3.4% |
Delta Air Lines flew 56.5% of the 6,845 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 3.78% of its flights here against 2.02% for United Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 11.8 percentage points more often than United Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL1641 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 905 | 88.0% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 86.7%
- Feb: 83.5%
- Mar: 85.4%
- Apr: 79.6%
- May: 77.2%
- Jun: 70.2%
- Jul: 64.8%
- Aug: 73.8%
- Sep: 83.9%
- Oct: 81.2%
- Nov: 80.1%
- Dec: 78.5%
July is historically the weakest month and January the strongest, a spread of 21.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 61.1% from 209 flights
- August 2023: 77.6% from 213 flights
- September 2023: 84.8% from 203 flights
- October 2023: 90.1% from 212 flights
- November 2023: 90.1% from 172 flights
- December 2023: 92.9% from 168 flights
- January 2024: 85.6% from 171 flights
- February 2024: 91.2% from 161 flights
- March 2024: 88.6% from 177 flights
- April 2024: 82.1% from 188 flights
- May 2024: 79.7% from 212 flights
- June 2024: 63.7% from 205 flights
- July 2024: 60.2% from 211 flights
- August 2024: 64.7% from 210 flights
- September 2024: 85.7% from 203 flights
- October 2024: 83.0% from 206 flights
- November 2024: 78.7% from 169 flights
- December 2024: 72.6% from 169 flights
- January 2025: 85.5% from 174 flights
- February 2025: 71.5% from 160 flights
- March 2025: 88.6% from 179 flights
- April 2025: 66.0% from 162 flights
- May 2025: 58.3% from 154 flights
- June 2025: 71.1% from 174 flights
- July 2025: 63.4% from 184 flights
- August 2025: 79.2% from 198 flights
- September 2025: 81.2% from 203 flights
- October 2025: 69.8% from 202 flights
- November 2025: 70.5% from 167 flights
- December 2025: 69.2% from 169 flights
- January 2026: 89.1% from 171 flights
- February 2026: 88.1% from 157 flights
- March 2026: 78.6% from 180 flights
- April 2026: 89.7% from 176 flights
- May 2026: 88.9% from 201 flights
- June 2026: 76.3% from 200 flights
- July 2026: 75.3% from 196 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.6% against 74.4% in the 12 months before — improving by 5.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,866 EWR → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed