Route profile
MSP→DFW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Dallas–Fort Worth, 852 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 36% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,977 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → DFW arrives on time 78.2% of the time; the return trip, DFW → MSP, arrives on time 75.9% of the time, a 2.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → DFW spends 32.0 minutes on the ground on an 852-mile trip: 18.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 13.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 97% of 5,368 comparable routes.
77.7% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 77.9% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to DFW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to DFW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 PM: 75.4% arrive on time, 9 points ahead of the 66.4% those routes manage at that hour.
MSP to DFW struggles most at 5 AM: 88.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 3.8 points behind the 91.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
July is kinder to MSP to DFW than to routes of similar length: 74.8% on time against 68.4%, 6.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
In June, MSP to DFW runs 6.2 points below routes of similar length, 65.6% on time to 71.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
American Airlines does better on MSP to DFW than on its routes of similar length: 78.4% on time here, 74.2% there, 4.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 3.3 points.
MSP to DFW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 75.4% | routes of similar length | 66.4% | +9.0 pts | 130 here, 73,064 there |
| Hour: 5 AM departures | 88.1% | routes of similar length | 91.9% | −3.8 pts | 615 here, 86,946 there |
| Month: July | 74.8% | routes of similar length | 68.4% | +6.4 pts | 1,125 here, 287,571 there |
| Month: June | 65.6% | routes of similar length | 71.8% | −6.2 pts | 811 here, 214,070 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 78.4% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | +4.2 pts | 5,003 here, 387,092 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 852 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → DFW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → DFW cancelled 168 of 9,977 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 59. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 78.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 76 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 168 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
132 cancellations, 78.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
35 cancellations, 20.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 0.6% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
168 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → DFW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
49 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 9,977 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DFW after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 35% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.68% of the time and diverts 0.60% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,749 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 49 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,977 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.7% of the time, against 70.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 16.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 88.1% on time from 627 flights
- 6 AM: 87.0% on time from 962 flights
- 7 AM: 86.1% on time from 1,292 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 81.8% on time from 1,492 flights
- 11 AM: 80.9% on time from 629 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 73.0% on time from 1,286 flights
- 3 PM: 72.7% on time from 858 flights
- 4 PM: 65.1% on time from 263 flights
- 5 PM: 65.3% on time from 181 flights
- 6 PM: 68.4% on time from 463 flights
- 7 PM: 70.5% on time from 1,091 flights
- 8 PM: 72.0% on time from 319 flights
- 9 PM: 75.4% on time from 135 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → DFW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 5,157 | 78.4% | 2.37% | -8 min | 8.5% |
| Delta Air Lines | 4,346 | 79.2% | 0.92% | -7 min | 6.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 422 | 65.3% | 1.42% | 0 min | 14.7% |
American Airlines flew 52.0% of the 9,925 flights listed. American Airlines cancelled 2.37% of its flights here against 0.92% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 13.9 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
AA1395 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 87.0% of the time, 14.8 points more often than DL2971 (2:50 PM) at 72.2%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 4.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.2%
- Feb: 84.1%
- Mar: 82.0%
- Apr: 74.1%
- May: 72.8%
- Jun: 65.6%
- Jul: 74.8%
- Aug: 81.0%
- Sep: 82.8%
- Oct: 85.4%
- Nov: 84.3%
- Dec: 77.2%
June is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 19.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 78.4% from 274 flights
- August 2023: 87.3% from 296 flights
- September 2023: 82.1% from 252 flights
- October 2023: 81.9% from 268 flights
- November 2023: 89.0% from 246 flights
- December 2023: 89.0% from 236 flights
- January 2024: 71.9% from 229 flights
- February 2024: 89.4% from 218 flights
- March 2024: 76.9% from 243 flights
- April 2024: 78.9% from 271 flights
- May 2024: 67.4% from 289 flights
- June 2024: 64.7% from 280 flights
- July 2024: 72.1% from 284 flights
- August 2024: 77.0% from 274 flights
- September 2024: 85.0% from 260 flights
- October 2024: 89.8% from 304 flights
- November 2024: 83.5% from 282 flights
- December 2024: 78.3% from 288 flights
- January 2025: 81.6% from 272 flights
- February 2025: 80.8% from 241 flights
- March 2025: 83.3% from 280 flights
- April 2025: 67.6% from 268 flights
- May 2025: 75.1% from 275 flights
- June 2025: 65.3% from 273 flights
- July 2025: 66.9% from 281 flights
- August 2025: 78.1% from 268 flights
- September 2025: 81.2% from 256 flights
- October 2025: 84.0% from 298 flights
- November 2025: 80.8% from 270 flights
- December 2025: 65.9% from 276 flights
- January 2026: 74.3% from 258 flights
- February 2026: 82.7% from 240 flights
- March 2026: 85.3% from 292 flights
- April 2026: 75.8% from 259 flights
- May 2026: 75.8% from 277 flights
- June 2026: 66.8% from 286 flights
- July 2026: 81.2% from 313 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.7% against 77.9% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,977 MSP → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed