Route profile
DFW→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Dallas–Fort Worth to Minneapolis, 852 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 24% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,974 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DFW → MSP arrives on time 75.9% of the time; the return trip, MSP → DFW, arrives on time 78.2% of the time, a 2.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DFW → MSP spends 25.5 minutes on the ground on an 852-mile trip: 19.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DFW and 6.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where DFW to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DFW to MSP struggles most at 11 AM: 73.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.4 points behind the 81.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
DFW to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 4 PM: 76.3% arrive on time, 7.6 points ahead of the 68.7% those routes manage at that hour.
Wednesday is the day DFW to MSP slips furthest against routes of similar length, 76.3% on time where they average 80.3%, 4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
In June, DFW to MSP runs 9.5 points below routes of similar length, 62.3% on time to 71.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 10.4 points.
American Airlines’ flights on DFW to MSP arrive on time 70.0% of the time, 4.3 points below the 74.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
DFW to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 73.0% | routes of similar length | 81.4% | −8.4 pts | 986 here, 163,403 there |
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 76.3% | routes of similar length | 68.7% | +7.6 pts | 219 here, 143,258 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 76.3% | routes of similar length | 80.3% | −4.0 pts | 1,352 here, 358,916 there |
| Month: June | 62.3% | routes of similar length | 71.8% | −9.5 pts | 818 here, 214,063 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 70.0% | routes of similar length | 74.3% | −4.3 pts | 5,027 here, 387,068 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 852 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DFW → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DFW → MSP cancelled 169 of 9,974 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 59. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 79.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 74 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 169 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
134 cancellations, 79.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
34 cancellations, 20.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 0.6% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
169 coded cancellations were recorded on DFW → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
57 min late
against a median of 4 min early
DFW → MSP has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 61 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 9,974 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from DFW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 40% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.69% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,786 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 57 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,974 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DFW → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.5% of the time, against 60.9% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 27.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 92.1% on time from 746 flights
- 7 AM: 87.2% on time from 1,356 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 83.3% on time from 1,110 flights
- 11 AM: 73.0% on time from 1,005 flights
- 12 PM: 78.9% on time from 189 flights
- 1 PM: 73.7% on time from 246 flights
- 2 PM: 78.0% on time from 762 flights
- 3 PM: 70.4% on time from 1,247 flights
- 4 PM: 76.3% on time from 224 flights
- 5 PM: 67.6% on time from 348 flights
- 6 PM: 69.8% on time from 1,279 flights
- 7 PM: 61.7% on time from 442 flights
- 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 61.1% on time from 707 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DFW → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DFW → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DFW → MSP, at 47.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.5% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 60.9%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 5,155 | 70.0% | 2.29% | 0 min | 11.5% |
| Delta Air Lines | 4,344 | 82.8% | 1.01% | -9 min | 7.7% |
| Frontier Airlines | 422 | 74.3% | 1.66% | -3 min | 8.2% |
American Airlines flew 52.0% of the 9,921 flights listed. American Airlines cancelled 2.29% of its flights here against 1.01% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 12.8 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.2%
- Feb: 84.9%
- Mar: 75.7%
- Apr: 74.8%
- May: 70.3%
- Jun: 62.3%
- Jul: 67.3%
- Aug: 75.3%
- Sep: 81.1%
- Oct: 85.3%
- Nov: 84.4%
- Dec: 75.9%
June is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 23.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 74.0% from 274 flights
- August 2023: 85.4% from 296 flights
- September 2023: 78.0% from 251 flights
- October 2023: 86.1% from 268 flights
- November 2023: 90.7% from 247 flights
- December 2023: 84.7% from 236 flights
- January 2024: 74.4% from 228 flights
- February 2024: 88.5% from 218 flights
- March 2024: 71.1% from 243 flights
- April 2024: 75.5% from 270 flights
- May 2024: 62.6% from 289 flights
- June 2024: 59.6% from 281 flights
- July 2024: 63.0% from 284 flights
- August 2024: 72.4% from 275 flights
- September 2024: 84.2% from 259 flights
- October 2024: 91.1% from 304 flights
- November 2024: 85.4% from 282 flights
- December 2024: 79.4% from 287 flights
- January 2025: 85.0% from 272 flights
- February 2025: 84.9% from 241 flights
- March 2025: 76.4% from 280 flights
- April 2025: 72.4% from 268 flights
- May 2025: 72.1% from 275 flights
- June 2025: 65.5% from 273 flights
- July 2025: 68.8% from 280 flights
- August 2025: 66.9% from 268 flights
- September 2025: 80.9% from 255 flights
- October 2025: 78.7% from 298 flights
- November 2025: 77.6% from 269 flights
- December 2025: 64.8% from 276 flights
- January 2026: 74.5% from 259 flights
- February 2026: 81.4% from 240 flights
- March 2026: 79.0% from 292 flights
- April 2026: 76.7% from 258 flights
- May 2026: 76.1% from 278 flights
- June 2026: 62.0% from 286 flights
- July 2026: 63.8% from 314 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.3% against 78.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,974 DFW → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed