Route profile
MSP→BNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Nashville, 695 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 85% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,175 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → BNA arrives on time 82.3% of the time; the return trip, BNA → MSP, arrives on time 84.9% of the time, a 2.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → BNA spends 25.5 minutes on the ground on a 695-mile trip: 16.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 8.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to BNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to BNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 79.9% arrive on time, 13 points ahead of the 66.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.5 points.
MSP to BNA struggles most at 4 PM: 59.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.9 points behind the 69.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
MSP to BNA holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 80.9% on time to their 74.5%, a 6.4 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
May is kinder to MSP to BNA than to routes of similar length: 81.3% on time against 73.9%, 7.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on MSP to BNA than on its routes of similar length: 83.8% on time here, 80.7% there, 3.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.3 points.
MSP to BNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 79.9% | routes of similar length | 66.9% | +13.0 pts | 806 here, 108,119 there |
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 59.6% | routes of similar length | 69.5% | −9.9 pts | 161 here, 130,947 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 80.9% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +6.4 pts | 790 here, 323,003 there |
| Month: May | 81.3% | routes of similar length | 73.9% | +7.4 pts | 455 here, 186,868 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 83.8% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | +3.1 pts | 3,761 here, 386,993 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 695 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
29 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 5,175 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BNA after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.6% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.6% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.5% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.79% of the time and diverts 0.25% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,121 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 29 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,175 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.2% of the time, against 75.9% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 14.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 92.3% on time from 452 flights
- 7 AM: 88.6% on time from 804 flights
- 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 91.0% on time from 192 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 87.7% on time from 155 flights
- 12 PM: 89.0% on time from 584 flights
- 1 PM: 78.7% on time from 273 flights
- 2 PM: 70.9% on time from 185 flights
- 3 PM: 79.2% on time from 1,011 flights
- 4 PM: 59.6% on time from 163 flights
- 5 PM to 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 76.0% on time from 246 flights
- 8 PM: 79.9% on time from 819 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → BNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,805 | 83.8% | 0.84% | -9 min | 4.6% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,363 | 78.5% | 0.66% | -5 min | 4.9% |
Delta Air Lines flew 73.6% of the 5,168 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 5.3 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 6.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.1%
- Feb: 86.2%
- Mar: 80.2%
- Apr: 82.0%
- May: 81.3%
- Jun: 75.7%
- Jul: 74.0%
- Aug: 82.9%
- Sep: 89.5%
- Oct: 89.4%
- Nov: 89.2%
- Dec: 80.4%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 77.1% from 153 flights
- August 2023: 75.0% from 153 flights
- September 2023: 85.7% from 147 flights
- October 2023: 89.7% from 156 flights
- November 2023: 94.1% from 135 flights
- December 2023: 87.3% from 134 flights
- January 2024: 82.9% from 121 flights
- February 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- March 2024: 82.6% from 122 flights
- April 2024: 86.4% from 125 flights
- May 2024: 79.7% from 149 flights
- June 2024: 72.5% from 149 flights
- July 2024: 65.3% from 151 flights
- August 2024: 85.1% from 148 flights
- September 2024: 92.1% from 141 flights
- October 2024: 94.1% from 153 flights
- November 2024: 90.6% from 139 flights
- December 2024: 82.1% from 123 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- March 2025: 85.5% from 126 flights
- April 2025: 74.4% from 126 flights
- May 2025: 82.6% from 141 flights
- June 2025: 80.0% from 150 flights
- July 2025: 76.5% from 154 flights
- August 2025: 88.6% from 149 flights
- September 2025: 90.8% from 141 flights
- October 2025: 84.4% from 154 flights
- November 2025: 83.0% from 137 flights
- December 2025: 70.7% from 122 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (113)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (101)
- March 2026: 73.6% from 149 flights
- April 2026: 84.6% from 160 flights
- May 2026: 81.7% from 171 flights
- June 2026: 74.7% from 172 flights
- July 2026: 76.6% from 178 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 81.4% against 83.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,175 MSP → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed