MKE → ORD Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MKENo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:52 UTC

Milwaukee airport profile →

Destination · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

39/ 100Weak

Better than 3% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 11,098 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

72.4%

7,798 of 10,773

Cancellation rate

2.91%

323 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-3 min

Average 17.2 min

Severe delays

12.3%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

87 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

11,098

3 carriers

MKE → ORD arrives on time 72.4% of the time; the return trip, ORD → MKE, arrives on time 68.6% of the time, a 3.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

MKE → ORD spends 41.3 minutes on the ground on a 67-mile trip: 20.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MKE and 20.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 96% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth run 79 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why MKE → ORD flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MKE → ORD cancelled 323 of 11,098 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 34. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 82.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 42 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather82.7%

Air traffic14.9%

Airline2.5%

Security0.0%

Of 323 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 42

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

267 cancellations, 82.7% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 231

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

48 cancellations, 14.9% of the total.

The airline1 in 1,387

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

8 cancellations, 2.5% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

323 coded cancellations were recorded on MKE → ORD; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

76 min late

against a median of 3 min early

Arrived an hour or more late12.3%

Typical delay when late87 min

Cancelled2.91%

Landed somewhere else0.02%

MKE → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth are 79 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 11,098 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at ORD after arriving from MKE.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MKE → ORD arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	44%	Likely to miss
45 min	27%	High risk
60 min	19%	High risk
90 min	12%	Some risk
120 min	8.5%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.91% of the time and diverts 0.02% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 10,773 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 76 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 11,098 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MKE → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 78.8% of the time, against 51.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 27.2 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MKE).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 8.7 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.8 points.

On-time arrival rate for MKE to ORD by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 5 AM and after 6 PM (513 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MKE to ORD. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	85.4% on time160 flights	85.5% on time140 flights	87.1% on time144 flights	84.9% on time160 flights	87.8% on time158 flights	84.8% on time149 flights	84.2% on time158 flights
6 AM–7 AM	81.0% on time161 flights	79.7% on time160 flights	83.3% on time161 flights	79.9% on time161 flights	73.0% on time162 flights	77.2% on time162 flights	75.3% on time162 flights
7 AM–8 AM	74.3% on time139 flights	78.4% on time137 flights	83.7% on time143 flights	82.5% on time144 flights	76.6% on time139 flights	82.2% on time139 flights	80.1% on time139 flights
8 AM–9 AM	70.7% on time206 flights	83.2% on time205 flights	74.1% on time203 flights	75.5% on time201 flights	70.4% on time206 flights	70.0% on time208 flights	70.0% on time207 flights
9 AM–10 AM	40 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	37 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	49 flights, too few to score	40 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	73.3% on time137 flights	80.9% on time140 flights	77.7% on time140 flights	78.3% on time132 flights	79.8% on time134 flights	80.0% on time140 flights	73.7% on time137 flights
11 AM–12 PM	78 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	68.1% on time121 flights	114 flights, too few to score	106 flights, too few to score	115 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	76.1% on time120 flights	119 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	88 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	93 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	72 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	68 flights, too few to score	70 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	67.2% on time125 flights	69.2% on time122 flights	74.6% on time120 flights	68.1% on time121 flights	116 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score
4 PM–5 PM	56 flights, too few to score	59 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	52 flights, too few to score	55 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	63.3% on time161 flights	55.2% on time151 flights	58.4% on time155 flights	54.5% on time150 flights	46.5% on time148 flights	67.1% on time148 flights	51.3% on time158 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM78.8%

9 AM–12 PM75.7%

12–3 PM69.9%

3–6 PM62.9%

6–9 PM51.6%

9 PM–5 AM—

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.

Why MKE → ORD runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

The airline46.4%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Late-arriving aircraft25.7%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control18.8%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather9.1%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security<0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MKE → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is ORD, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from ORD, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 2.8 times at MKE. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MKE 3.8% against 1.3%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MKE and ORD in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MKE	ORD
Cancelled in bad weather	3.8%	6.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.3%	1.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	70.7%	55.7%
Arrived on time, normal hours	82.3%	77.1%
Departures in bad weather	11,113	104,455

Republic Airways (6.2% cancelled against 4.1% for the other carriers at MKE) and SkyWest Airlines (6.4% cancelled against 3.6% for the other carriers at MKE) cancelled more departures from MKE in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly better. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from MKE to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MKE

All departures from MKE

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MKE for the airlines that fly MKE to ORD, against the other carriers at MKE in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Republic Airways	768	6.2%above the others	4.1%
SkyWest Airlines	2,311	6.4%above the others	3.6%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MKE and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MKE on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MKE (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
SkyWest Airlines	10,528	72.1%	2.78%	-3 min	12.5%
Republic Airways	324	83.3%	4.01%	-7 min	7.7%
Envoy Air	213	73.6%	5.63%	-6 min	10.0%

SkyWest Airlines flew 95.1% of the 11,065 flights listed. Envoy Air cancelled 5.63% of its flights here against 2.78% for SkyWest Airlines.

Republic Airways arrived on time 11.2 percentage points more often than SkyWest Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
OO5402 SkyWest Airlines	8:30 AM	1,058	74.7%
OO4803 SkyWest Airlines	7:00 AM	1,001	81.1%
OO5648 SkyWest Airlines	5:46 PM	894	58.3%
OO5799 SkyWest Airlines	5:15 AM	718	85.5%

OO5799 (5:15 AM) arrived on time 85.5% of the time, 27.2 points more often than OO5648 (5:46 PM) at 58.3%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon71.8%

Tue75.1%

Wed75.9%

Thu72.4%

Fri68.2%

Sat74.5%

Sun69.0%

Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.7 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

December is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 9.7 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 68.4% against 73.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.8 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 11,098 MKE → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MKE airport ORD airport Return direction ORD → MKE

MKE→ORD

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MKE → ORD flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MKE → ORD runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MKE

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology