Route profile
MKE→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Milwaukee to Washington, 634 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 20% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,990 flights. How this is calculated
MKE → DCA arrives on time 78.2% of the time; the return trip, DCA → MKE, arrives on time 78.4% of the time.
MKE → DCA spends 24.9 minutes on the ground on a 634-mile trip: 17.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MKE and 7.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MKE to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MKE to DCA struggles most at 12 PM: 68.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12.4 points behind the 80.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
MKE to DCA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 93.4% arrive on time, 7.1 points ahead of the 86.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
Wednesday is the day MKE to DCA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 76.7% on time where they average 81.1%, 4.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
In February, MKE to DCA runs 7 points below routes of similar length, 74.7% on time to 81.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
May is kinder to MKE to DCA than to routes of similar length: 80.0% on time against 74.5%, 5.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
MKE to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 68.3% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | −12.4 pts | 347 here, 108,526 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 93.4% | routes of similar length | 86.3% | +7.1 pts | 713 here, 142,014 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 76.7% | routes of similar length | 81.1% | −4.4 pts | 593 here, 290,463 there |
| Month: February | 74.7% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −7.0 pts | 292 here, 146,033 there |
| Month: May | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +5.5 pts | 340 here, 176,537 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 634 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MKE → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MKE → DCA cancelled 111 of 3,990 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 36. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 79.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 45 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 111 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
88 cancellations, 79.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
13 cancellations, 11.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
10 cancellations, 9.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
111 coded cancellations were recorded on MKE → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
48 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,990 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from MKE.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.78% of the time and diverts 0.43% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,862 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 48 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,990 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MKE → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.4% of the time, against 68.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 19.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 81.6% on time from 897 flights
- 7 AM: 94.0% on time from 133 flights
- 8 AM: 93.4% on time from 719 flights
- 9 AM: 85.8% on time from 186 flights
- 10 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 68.3% on time from 362 flights
- 1 PM: 76.2% on time from 491 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 75.3% on time from 515 flights
- 4 PM: 59.1% on time from 227 flights
- 5 PM: 58.8% on time from 174 flights
- 6 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MKE → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MKE → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,107 | 79.7% | 1.28% | -7 min | 6.7% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,851 | 76.7% | 4.54% | -7 min | 10.3% |
Southwest Airlines flew 53.2% of the 3,958 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 4.54% of its flights here against 1.28% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 3.0 percentage points more often than PSA Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH5646 PSA Airlines | 6:00 AM | 923 | 82.1% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.6%
- Feb: 74.7%
- Mar: 76.2%
- Apr: 80.5%
- May: 80.0%
- Jun: 77.2%
- Jul: 71.3%
- Aug: 81.0%
- Sep: 83.9%
- Oct: 84.5%
- Nov: 80.5%
- Dec: 74.1%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 13.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (60)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (62)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (56)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (111)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (112)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (106)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (114)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (111)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2025: 77.6% from 120 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (115)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (98)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (115)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (114)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (117)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.0% against 81.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 7.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,990 MKE → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed