Route profile
DCA→MKE
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to Milwaukee, 634 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 21% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,993 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DCA → MKE arrives on time 78.4% of the time; the return trip, MKE → DCA, arrives on time 78.2% of the time.
DCA → MKE spends 24.3 minutes on the ground on a 634-mile trip: 19.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 4.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at MKE.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 90% of 4,467 comparable routes.
80.1% on time on the best day (Tuesday) against 75.1% on the worst (Sunday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to MKE differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to MKE is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 AM: 93.1% arrive on time, 8.2 points ahead of the 84.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.8 points.
DCA to MKE struggles most at 10 AM: 77.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.9 points behind the 84.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
In February, DCA to MKE runs 7.2 points below routes of similar length, 74.5% on time to 81.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on DCA to MKE than on its routes of similar length: 83.0% on time here, 77.7% there, 5.3 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
PSA Airlines’ flights on DCA to MKE arrive on time 72.6% of the time, 2.7 points below the 75.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 3.1 points.
DCA to MKE against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 93.1% | routes of similar length | 84.9% | +8.2 pts | 188 here, 117,744 there |
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 77.4% | routes of similar length | 84.3% | −6.9 pts | 319 here, 123,094 there |
| Month: February | 74.5% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −7.2 pts | 290 here, 146,035 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 83.0% | routes of similar length | 77.7% | +5.3 pts | 2,075 here, 523,329 there |
| Airline: PSA Airlines | 72.6% | routes of similar length | 75.3% | −2.7 pts | 1,743 here, 27,961 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 634 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DCA → MKE flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DCA → MKE cancelled 137 of 3,993 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 29. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 74.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 39 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 137 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
102 cancellations, 74.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
19 cancellations, 13.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
16 cancellations, 11.7% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
137 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → MKE; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
45 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,993 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MKE after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.9% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.43% of the time and diverts 0.20% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,848 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 45 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,993 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → MKE flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.4% of the time, against 66.6% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 26.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 93.4% on time from 415 flights
- 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 93.1% on time from 189 flights
- 10 AM: 77.4% on time from 331 flights
- 11 AM: 87.4% on time from 744 flights
- 12 PM: 77.6% on time from 145 flights
- 1 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 70.7% on time from 449 flights
- 4 PM: 73.3% on time from 523 flights
- 5 PM to 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 65.8% on time from 285 flights
- 8 PM: 67.7% on time from 266 flights
- 9 PM: too few flights to score
- 10 PM: 66.1% on time from 357 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DCA → MKE runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → MKE. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → MKE, at 50.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.4% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 66.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,109 | 83.0% | 1.47% | -7 min | 4.9% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,853 | 72.6% | 5.67% | -6 min | 11.9% |
Southwest Airlines flew 53.2% of the 3,962 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 5.67% of its flights here against 1.47% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 10.4 percentage points more often than PSA Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH5656 PSA Airlines | 10:25 PM | 941 | 65.5% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.1%
- Feb: 74.5%
- Mar: 79.1%
- Apr: 80.4%
- May: 78.5%
- Jun: 72.3%
- Jul: 66.2%
- Aug: 77.9%
- Sep: 84.8%
- Oct: 85.7%
- Nov: 84.6%
- Dec: 76.7%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 19.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (60)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (62)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (56)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (112)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (111)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (105)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (114)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (114)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (111)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2025: 64.8% from 120 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (112)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (115)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (98)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (115)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (114)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (118)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.9% against 76.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,993 DCA → MKE flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed