Route profile
MIA→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Miami to Chicago, 1,182 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 17% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,256 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MIA → MDW arrives on time 73.5% of the time; the return trip, MDW → MIA, arrives on time 73.7% of the time.
MIA → MDW spends 26.1 minutes on the ground on a 1,182-mile trip: 20.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MIA and 6.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 90% of 4,023 comparable routes.
88.0% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 57.6% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MIA to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MIA to MDW struggles most at 5 PM: 55.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12.1 points behind the 67.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.2 points.
Saturday is the day MIA to MDW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 68.7% on time where they average 77.2%, 8.5 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 10.4 points.
In August, MIA to MDW runs 11.8 points below routes of similar length, 62.6% on time to 74.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 13.9 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on MIA to MDW arrive on time 72.3% of the time, 3.4 points below the 75.7% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
MIA to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 55.6% | routes of similar length | 67.7% | −12.1 pts | 162 here, 127,939 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 68.7% | routes of similar length | 77.2% | −8.5 pts | 403 here, 286,076 there |
| Month: August | 62.6% | routes of similar length | 74.4% | −11.8 pts | 174 here, 168,820 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 72.3% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | −3.4 pts | 1,646 here, 461,778 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,182 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
60 min late
against a median of 2 min early
MIA → MDW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 2 min early, but the worst tenth are 62 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 2,256 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from MIA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 10.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.77% of the time and diverts 0.49% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,205 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 60 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,256 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MIA → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.0% of the time, against 57.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 30.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 86.6% on time from 392 flights
- 7 AM: 90.0% on time from 264 flights
- 8 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 68.1% on time from 143 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 75.3% on time from 151 flights
- 3 PM: 71.0% on time from 133 flights
- 4 PM: 64.8% on time from 179 flights
- 5 PM: 55.6% on time from 166 flights
- 6 PM: 56.3% on time from 164 flights
- 7 PM: 57.1% on time from 166 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MIA → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MIA → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MIA → MDW, at 49.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 57.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 1,679 | 72.3% | 1.37% | -1 min | 9.9% |
| Frontier Airlines | 577 | 76.9% | 2.95% | -8 min | 10.6% |
Southwest Airlines flew 74.4% of the 2,256 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.95% of its flights here against 1.37% for Southwest Airlines.
Frontier Airlines arrived on time 4.6 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Miami to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA→ORD Miami to Chicago | 13,637 | 74.3% | 1.31% | -6 min | 56 |
| MIA→MDW this route Miami to Chicago | 2,256 | 73.5% | 1.77% | -2 min | 51 |
MIA → ORD is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 74.3% on time, against 73.5% for MIA → MDW.
Flying to MDW from the Miami area? Compare MIA, FLL for MDW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Saturday the least, a gap of 10.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 72.3%
- Feb: 72.4%
- Mar: 72.4%
- Apr: 80.1%
- May: 78.1%
- Jun: 73.7%
- Jul: 69.4%
- Aug: 62.6%
- Sep: 76.1%
- Oct: 75.2%
- Nov: 76.2%
- Dec: 74.5%
August is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 17.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 68.5% against 74.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,256 MIA → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed