Route profile
MDW→MIA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Miami, 1,182 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 20% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,235 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → MIA arrives on time 73.7% of the time; the return trip, MIA → MDW, arrives on time 73.5% of the time.
MDW → MIA spends 23.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,182-mile trip: 15.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 8.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MIA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to MIA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to MIA struggles most at 8 AM: 72.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.6 points behind the 85.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.7 points.
Saturday is the day MDW to MIA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.0% on time where they average 77.2%, 5.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
In January, MDW to MIA runs 13 points below routes of similar length, 64.2% on time to 77.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 14.9 points.
MDW to MIA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 72.2% | routes of similar length | 85.8% | −13.6 pts | 306 here, 140,660 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 72.0% | routes of similar length | 77.2% | −5.2 pts | 407 here, 286,072 there |
| Month: January | 64.2% | routes of similar length | 77.2% | −13.0 pts | 187 here, 165,855 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,182 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
55 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 2,235 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MIA after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 45% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.79% of the time and diverts 0.31% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,188 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 55 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,235 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → MIA flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 82.3% of the time, against 62.4% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 19.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 85.5% on time from 153 flights
- 7 AM: 78.5% on time from 223 flights
- 8 AM: 72.2% on time from 308 flights
- 9 AM: 84.9% on time from 251 flights
- 10 AM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 69.3% on time from 143 flights
- 6 PM: 71.6% on time from 206 flights
- 7 PM: 70.9% on time from 258 flights
- 8 PM: 66.0% on time from 191 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MDW → MIA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → MIA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → MIA, at 42.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 9 AM–12 PM departures arrived on time 82.3% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 62.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 1,656 | 75.1% | 1.21% | -1 min | 7.2% |
| Frontier Airlines | 579 | 69.6% | 3.45% | -4 min | 15.0% |
Southwest Airlines flew 74.1% of the 2,235 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.45% of its flights here against 1.21% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 5.5 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Miami
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→MIA Chicago to Miami | 13,646 | 76.1% | 1.34% | -6 min | 61 |
| MDW→MIA this route Chicago to Miami | 2,235 | 73.7% | 1.79% | -2 min | 53 |
ORD → MIA is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 76.1% on time, against 73.7% for MDW → MIA.
Flying to MIA from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for MIA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 13.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 64.2%
- Feb: 80.5%
- Mar: 74.5%
- Apr: 78.5%
- May: 74.0%
- Jun: 68.9%
- Jul: 65.0%
- Aug: 66.2%
- Sep: 78.1%
- Oct: 86.3%
- Nov: 79.9%
- Dec: 72.3%
January is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 22.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.9% against 76.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,235 MDW → MIA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed