Route profile
MDW→MCO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Orlando, 990 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 38% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,781 flights. How this is calculated
MDW → MCO arrives on time 76.4% of the time; the return trip, MCO → MDW, arrives on time 73.6% of the time, a 2.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → MCO spends 23.6 minutes on the ground on a 990-mile trip: 14.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 9.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 96% of 4,023 comparable routes.
88.1% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 53.8% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to MCO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to MCO struggles most at 9 PM: 53.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.9 points behind the 65.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 15.7 points.
In June, MDW to MCO runs 4.4 points below routes of similar length, 67.1% on time to 71.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
November is kinder to MDW to MCO than to routes of similar length: 86.6% on time against 83.0%, 3.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 3.2 points.
MDW to MCO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 53.8% | routes of similar length | 65.7% | −11.9 pts | 208 here, 85,021 there |
| Month: June | 67.1% | routes of similar length | 71.5% | −4.4 pts | 720 here, 247,596 there |
| Month: November | 86.6% | routes of similar length | 83.0% | +3.6 pts | 708 here, 247,229 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 990 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → MCO flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → MCO cancelled 143 of 8,781 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 61. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 67.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 91 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 143 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
97 cancellations, 67.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
30 cancellations, 21.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
16 cancellations, 11.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
143 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → MCO; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
46 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 8,781 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MCO after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.63% of the time and diverts 0.51% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,593 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 46 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,781 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.1% of the time, against 53.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 34.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.1% on time from 867 flights
- 6 AM: 90.2% on time from 455 flights
- 7 AM: 83.9% on time from 707 flights
- 8 AM: 84.7% on time from 688 flights
- 9 AM: 82.7% on time from 725 flights
- 10 AM: 78.9% on time from 333 flights
- 11 AM: 78.6% on time from 458 flights
- 12 PM: 76.6% on time from 353 flights
- 1 PM: 76.0% on time from 641 flights
- 2 PM: 72.0% on time from 260 flights
- 3 PM: 74.0% on time from 514 flights
- 4 PM: 68.1% on time from 446 flights
- 5 PM: 61.0% on time from 681 flights
- 6 PM: 64.3% on time from 571 flights
- 7 PM: 61.8% on time from 330 flights
- 8 PM: 66.0% on time from 534 flights
- 9 PM: 53.8% on time from 218 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → MCO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → MCO, at 41.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.1% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 53.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 7,914 | 76.5% | 1.48% | -3 min | 7.0% |
| Frontier Airlines | 867 | 75.4% | 3.00% | -10 min | 12.6% |
Southwest Airlines flew 90.1% of the 8,781 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.00% of its flights here against 1.48% for Southwest Airlines.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Orlando
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→MCO Chicago to Orlando | 17,133 | 75.3% | 1.48% | -6 min | 56 |
| MDW→MCO this route Chicago to Orlando | 8,781 | 76.4% | 1.63% | -4 min | 61 |
MDW → MCO is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 76.4% on time, against 75.3% for ORD → MCO.
Flying to MCO from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for MCO, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.8%
- Feb: 83.3%
- Mar: 72.6%
- Apr: 82.3%
- May: 72.8%
- Jun: 67.1%
- Jul: 64.5%
- Aug: 72.3%
- Sep: 84.1%
- Oct: 84.1%
- Nov: 86.6%
- Dec: 76.3%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 22.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 56.8% from 270 flights
- August 2023: 72.3% from 231 flights
- September 2023: 80.5% from 187 flights
- October 2023: 78.7% from 258 flights
- November 2023: 85.0% from 267 flights
- December 2023: 75.0% from 286 flights
- January 2024: 69.4% from 242 flights
- February 2024: 89.3% from 215 flights
- March 2024: 68.7% from 294 flights
- April 2024: 83.1% from 259 flights
- May 2024: 66.8% from 242 flights
- June 2024: 69.6% from 252 flights
- July 2024: 59.1% from 262 flights
- August 2024: 72.8% from 231 flights
- September 2024: 84.5% from 214 flights
- October 2024: 92.4% from 240 flights
- November 2024: 90.5% from 222 flights
- December 2024: 79.1% from 231 flights
- January 2025: 86.2% from 211 flights
- February 2025: 84.3% from 200 flights
- March 2025: 79.9% from 271 flights
- April 2025: 83.4% from 221 flights
- May 2025: 75.6% from 211 flights
- June 2025: 70.3% from 249 flights
- July 2025: 71.2% from 259 flights
- August 2025: 71.7% from 227 flights
- September 2025: 86.8% from 213 flights
- October 2025: 82.3% from 246 flights
- November 2025: 84.5% from 234 flights
- December 2025: 75.1% from 241 flights
- January 2026: 78.2% from 211 flights
- February 2026: 76.1% from 206 flights
- March 2026: 69.6% from 286 flights
- April 2026: 80.2% from 218 flights
- May 2026: 77.2% from 199 flights
- June 2026: 60.7% from 234 flights
- July 2026: 71.7% from 241 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.9% against 80.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,781 MDW → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed