Route profile
MCO→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to Chicago, 990 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 27% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,841 flights. How this is calculated
MCO → MDW arrives on time 73.6% of the time; the return trip, MDW → MCO, arrives on time 76.4% of the time, a 2.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MCO → MDW spends 23.1 minutes on the ground on a 990-mile trip: 17.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 5.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 96% of 4,023 comparable routes.
91.6% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 57.7% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to MDW struggles most at 8 PM: 52.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.5 points behind the 66.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.8 points.
MCO to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 91.2% arrive on time, 5.1 points ahead of the 86.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
Saturday is the day MCO to MDW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.5% on time where they average 77.5%, 7 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
In August, MCO to MDW runs 8.3 points below routes of similar length, 66.1% on time to 74.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 10.4 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on MCO to MDW arrive on time 73.4% of the time, 2.4 points below the 75.8% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 4 points.
MCO to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 52.6% | routes of similar length | 66.1% | −13.5 pts | 641 here, 152,797 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 91.2% | routes of similar length | 86.1% | +5.1 pts | 398 here, 204,390 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 70.5% | routes of similar length | 77.5% | −7.0 pts | 1,286 here, 408,714 there |
| Month: August | 66.1% | routes of similar length | 74.4% | −8.3 pts | 687 here, 245,639 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 73.4% | routes of similar length | 75.8% | −2.4 pts | 7,791 here, 742,392 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 990 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MCO → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → MDW cancelled 150 of 8,841 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 59. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 67.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 88 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 150 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
101 cancellations, 67.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
32 cancellations, 21.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
17 cancellations, 11.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
150 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 1 min early
Percentiles over 8,841 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 46% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.70% of the time and diverts 0.55% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,642 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,841 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.6% of the time, against 57.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 33.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 92.6% on time from 610 flights
- 7 AM: 90.9% on time from 831 flights
- 8 AM: 91.2% on time from 406 flights
- 9 AM: 84.9% on time from 612 flights
- 10 AM: 82.6% on time from 568 flights
- 11 AM: 81.1% on time from 385 flights
- 12 PM: 74.5% on time from 534 flights
- 1 PM: 76.5% on time from 356 flights
- 2 PM: 73.3% on time from 369 flights
- 3 PM: 71.5% on time from 516 flights
- 4 PM: 67.2% on time from 535 flights
- 5 PM: 62.1% on time from 737 flights
- 6 PM: 63.0% on time from 691 flights
- 7 PM: 58.2% on time from 417 flights
- 8 PM: 52.6% on time from 657 flights
- 9 PM: 58.1% on time from 351 flights
- 10 PM: 57.2% on time from 236 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → MDW, at 44.9%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.6% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 57.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 7,973 | 73.4% | 1.69% | -1 min | 8.4% |
| Frontier Airlines | 868 | 75.4% | 1.73% | -6 min | 9.5% |
Southwest Airlines flew 90.2% of the 8,841 flights listed.
Frontier Airlines arrived on time 2.0 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Orlando to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO→ORD Orlando to Chicago | 17,117 | 73.8% | 1.57% | -4 min | 52 |
| MCO→MDW this route Orlando to Chicago | 8,841 | 73.6% | 1.70% | -1 min | 56 |
MCO → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 73.6% on time, against 73.8% for MCO → ORD.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.6%
- Feb: 77.0%
- Mar: 70.8%
- Apr: 77.7%
- May: 71.2%
- Jun: 69.6%
- Jul: 63.2%
- Aug: 66.1%
- Sep: 79.3%
- Oct: 77.5%
- Nov: 85.8%
- Dec: 74.7%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 22.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 49.8% from 266 flights
- August 2023: 63.8% from 247 flights
- September 2023: 72.6% from 189 flights
- October 2023: 76.6% from 265 flights
- November 2023: 87.2% from 268 flights
- December 2023: 78.1% from 286 flights
- January 2024: 75.5% from 252 flights
- February 2024: 79.2% from 228 flights
- March 2024: 67.4% from 298 flights
- April 2024: 79.2% from 258 flights
- May 2024: 69.5% from 242 flights
- June 2024: 72.3% from 252 flights
- July 2024: 65.5% from 262 flights
- August 2024: 69.5% from 231 flights
- September 2024: 82.2% from 214 flights
- October 2024: 88.6% from 239 flights
- November 2024: 89.6% from 223 flights
- December 2024: 80.8% from 231 flights
- January 2025: 81.1% from 212 flights
- February 2025: 85.1% from 197 flights
- March 2025: 81.7% from 266 flights
- April 2025: 78.5% from 226 flights
- May 2025: 70.0% from 218 flights
- June 2025: 72.1% from 250 flights
- July 2025: 70.0% from 261 flights
- August 2025: 65.2% from 227 flights
- September 2025: 82.3% from 215 flights
- October 2025: 68.6% from 246 flights
- November 2025: 80.2% from 234 flights
- December 2025: 64.9% from 241 flights
- January 2026: 73.1% from 213 flights
- February 2026: 66.7% from 204 flights
- March 2026: 63.9% from 286 flights
- April 2026: 75.2% from 219 flights
- May 2026: 74.6% from 200 flights
- June 2026: 63.8% from 234 flights
- July 2026: 68.2% from 241 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 70.3% against 78.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 8.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,841 MCO → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed