Route profile
MDW→LAX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Los Angeles, 1,750 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 39% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,227 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → LAX arrives on time 72.1% of the time; the return trip, LAX → MDW, arrives on time 80.0% of the time, a 7.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → LAX spends 23.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,750-mile trip: 14.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 8.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at LAX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 92% of 5,368 comparable routes.
69.3% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 79.5% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 10.2 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to LAX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to LAX struggles most at 10 PM: 51.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 24.5 points behind the 76.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 20.2 points.
MDW to LAX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 73.6% arrive on time, 7.8 points ahead of the 65.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
Friday is the day MDW to LAX slips furthest against routes of similar length, 68.0% on time where they average 76.4%, 8.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 8.2 points.
In September, MDW to LAX runs 12.7 points below routes of similar length, 69.5% on time to 82.2%. Against all other routes the gap is 12.9 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on MDW to LAX arrive on time 72.1% of the time, 3 points below the 75.1% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
MDW to LAX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 51.5% | routes of similar length | 76.0% | −24.5 pts | 274 here, 32,275 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 73.6% | routes of similar length | 65.8% | +7.8 pts | 295 here, 44,793 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 68.0% | routes of similar length | 76.4% | −8.4 pts | 640 here, 204,556 there |
| Month: September | 69.5% | routes of similar length | 82.2% | −12.7 pts | 331 here, 109,224 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 72.1% | routes of similar length | 75.1% | −3.0 pts | 4,166 here, 256,365 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,750 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 0 min early
Percentiles over 4,227 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at LAX after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 49% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 27% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.80% of the time and diverts 0.64% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,166 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,227 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → LAX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.5% of the time, against 55.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 31.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 90.4% on time from 232 flights
- 6 AM: 91.2% on time from 285 flights
- 7 AM: 83.4% on time from 151 flights
- 8 AM: 80.3% on time from 299 flights
- 9 AM: 83.1% on time from 395 flights
- 10 AM: 79.5% on time from 266 flights
- 11 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 78.5% on time from 160 flights
- 2 PM: 58.2% on time from 170 flights
- 3 PM: 67.6% on time from 182 flights
- 4 PM: 71.7% on time from 189 flights
- 5 PM: 65.0% on time from 373 flights
- 6 PM: 50.9% on time from 168 flights
- 7 PM: 68.3% on time from 126 flights
- 8 PM: 73.6% on time from 299 flights
- 9 PM: 57.1% on time from 463 flights
- 10 PM: 51.5% on time from 281 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → LAX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → LAX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → LAX, at 41.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 86.5% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 55.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 4,227 | 72.1% | 0.80% | 0 min | 7.2% |
Other ways to fly Chicago to Los Angeles
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→LAX Chicago to Los Angeles | 21,173 | 76.4% | 1.19% | -6 min | 61 |
| MDW→LAX this route Chicago to Los Angeles | 4,227 | 72.1% | 0.80% | 0 min | 62 |
Flying to LAX from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for LAX, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.9%
- Feb: 74.7%
- Mar: 75.6%
- Apr: 75.8%
- May: 68.8%
- Jun: 60.4%
- Jul: 63.0%
- Aug: 71.6%
- Sep: 69.5%
- Oct: 77.0%
- Nov: 81.8%
- Dec: 77.6%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 21.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 50.0% from 165 flights
- August 2023: 63.2% from 157 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (102)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (116)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (114)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (119)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (83)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (108)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- June 2024: 57.7% from 135 flights
- July 2024: 66.0% from 146 flights
- August 2024: 78.4% from 125 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (104)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (96)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (76)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (104)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- June 2025: 69.1% from 137 flights
- July 2025: 67.6% from 146 flights
- August 2025: 75.2% from 121 flights
- September 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (103)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (116)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.3% against 79.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 10.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,227 MDW → LAX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed