Route profile
LAX→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Los Angeles to Chicago, 1,750 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 83% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,247 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
LAX → MDW arrives on time 80.0% of the time; the return trip, MDW → LAX, arrives on time 72.1% of the time, a 7.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
LAX → MDW spends 19.1 minutes on the ground on a 1,750-mile trip: 14.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at LAX and 4.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 93% of 5,368 comparable routes.
77.4% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 87.9% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 10.5 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where LAX to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
LAX to MDW struggles most at 3 PM: 55.7% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 17.1 points behind the 72.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17 points.
LAX to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 11 PM: 87.4% arrive on time, 6.8 points ahead of the 80.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
LAX to MDW holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 87.3% on time to their 78.6%, a 8.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.2 points.
February is kinder to LAX to MDW than to routes of similar length: 88.2% on time against 81.2%, 7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on LAX to MDW than on its routes of similar length: 80.0% on time here, 75.0% there, 5 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.6 points.
LAX to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 55.7% | routes of similar length | 72.8% | −17.1 pts | 167 here, 69,237 there |
| Hour: 11 PM departures | 87.4% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | +6.8 pts | 435 here, 61,930 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 87.3% | routes of similar length | 78.6% | +8.7 pts | 482 here, 186,218 there |
| Month: February | 88.2% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +7.0 pts | 246 here, 92,399 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 75.0% | +5.0 pts | 4,197 here, 256,334 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,750 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
32 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 4,247 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from LAX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.0% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.57% of the time and diverts 0.61% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,197 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,247 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
LAX → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.7% of the time, against 64.6% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 28.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.6% on time from 659 flights
- 6 AM: 93.6% on time from 380 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 87.8% on time from 254 flights
- 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 80.8% on time from 235 flights
- 11 AM: 78.0% on time from 326 flights
- 12 PM: 70.8% on time from 268 flights
- 1 PM: 79.2% on time from 268 flights
- 2 PM: 69.0% on time from 129 flights
- 3 PM: 55.7% on time from 171 flights
- 4 PM: 65.7% on time from 218 flights
- 5 PM: 71.5% on time from 180 flights
- 6 PM: 65.7% on time from 250 flights
- 7 PM: 62.2% on time from 226 flights
- 8 PM to 10 PM: too few flights to score
- 11 PM: 87.4% on time from 442 flights
Why LAX → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for LAX → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on LAX → MDW, at 48.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.7% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 64.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 4,247 | 80.0% | 0.57% | -4 min | 4.2% |
Other ways to fly Los Angeles to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAX→ORD Los Angeles to Chicago | 21,167 | 80.9% | 1.29% | -9 min | 67 |
| LAX→MDW this route Los Angeles to Chicago | 4,247 | 80.0% | 0.57% | -4 min | 78 |
LAX → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 80.0% on time, against 80.9% for LAX → ORD.
Flying to MDW from the Los Angeles area? Compare LAX, SNA, BUR, ONT for MDW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 10.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.6%
- Feb: 88.2%
- Mar: 79.9%
- Apr: 84.9%
- May: 77.5%
- Jun: 77.0%
- Jul: 69.8%
- Aug: 81.2%
- Sep: 86.3%
- Oct: 79.2%
- Nov: 84.7%
- Dec: 79.2%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 18.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 68.8% from 164 flights
- August 2023: 76.6% from 142 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (100)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (118)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (115)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (119)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (79)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- April 2024: 84.8% from 125 flights
- May 2024: 70.9% from 128 flights
- June 2024: 73.5% from 138 flights
- July 2024: 65.3% from 146 flights
- August 2024: 85.5% from 125 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (104)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (95)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (83)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (105)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- June 2025: 83.9% from 137 flights
- July 2025: 80.7% from 146 flights
- August 2025: 82.2% from 121 flights
- September 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (103)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (116)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.4% against 87.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 10.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,247 LAX → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed