Route profile
MDW→DFW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Dallas–Fort Worth, 797 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 4% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,309 flights. How this is calculated
MDW → DFW arrives on time 70.4% of the time; the return trip, DFW → MDW, arrives on time 69.0% of the time.
MDW → DFW spends 36.3 minutes on the ground on a 797-mile trip: 17.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 19.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 99% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth run 90 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to DFW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to DFW struggles most at 6 AM: 78.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12 points behind the 90.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.2 points.
Monday is the day MDW to DFW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 65.2% on time where they average 77.2%, 12 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 12.1 points.
In November, MDW to DFW runs 23.4 points below routes of similar length, 60.2% on time to 83.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 23.2 points.
MDW to DFW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 78.6% | routes of similar length | 90.6% | −12.0 pts | 140 here, 158,093 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 65.2% | routes of similar length | 77.2% | −12.0 pts | 204 here, 324,944 there |
| Month: November | 60.2% | routes of similar length | 83.6% | −23.4 pts | 128 here, 175,122 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 797 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
84 min late
against a median of 6 min early
MDW → DFW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 90 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 1,309 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DFW after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 29% | High risk |
| 60 min | 22% | High risk |
| 90 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 8.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.99% of the time and diverts 0.46% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,277 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 84 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,309 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 80.1% of the time, against 64.8% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 15.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 83.6% on time from 185 flights
- 6 AM: 78.6% on time from 143 flights
- 7 AM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 67.6% on time from 179 flights
- 4 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MDW → DFW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → DFW, at 50.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 80.1% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 64.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Airlines | 1,309 | 70.4% | 1.99% | -6 min | 14.3% |
Other ways to fly Chicago to Dallas–Fort Worth
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→DFW Chicago to Dallas–Fort Worth | 20,459 | 73.0% | 1.95% | -5 min | 48 |
| MDW→DFW this route Chicago to Dallas–Fort Worth | 1,309 | 70.4% | 1.99% | -6 min | 39 |
ORD → DFW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 73.0% on time, against 70.4% for MDW → DFW.
Flying to DFW from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for DFW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Thursday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 8.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.2% against 74.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,309 MDW → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed