Route profile
DFW→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Dallas–Fort Worth to Chicago, 797 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 2% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,309 flights. How this is calculated
DFW → MDW arrives on time 69.0% of the time; the return trip, MDW → DFW, arrives on time 70.4% of the time.
DFW → MDW spends 28.7 minutes on the ground on a 797-mile trip: 21.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DFW and 7.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 98% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 2 min early, but the worst tenth run 88 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DFW to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DFW to MDW struggles most at 6 PM: 54.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.2 points behind the 68.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.8 points.
Wednesday is the day DFW to MDW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 65.7% on time where they average 80.6%, 14.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 15.1 points.
In October, DFW to MDW runs 20.3 points below routes of similar length, 62.8% on time to 83.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 20.2 points.
Frontier Airlines’ flights on DFW to MDW arrive on time 69.0% of the time, 2.8 points below the 71.8% it manages on its routes of similar length.
DFW to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 54.8% | routes of similar length | 68.0% | −13.2 pts | 155 here, 145,379 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 65.7% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | −14.9 pts | 140 here, 302,760 there |
| Month: October | 62.8% | routes of similar length | 83.1% | −20.3 pts | 145 here, 187,474 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 69.0% | routes of similar length | 71.8% | −2.8 pts | 1,276 here, 108,454 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 797 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
86 min late
against a median of 2 min early
DFW → MDW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 2 min early, but the worst tenth are 88 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 1,309 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from DFW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 45% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 60 min | 23% | High risk |
| 90 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 9.2% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.29% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,276 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 86 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,309 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DFW → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 83.0% of the time, against 59.0% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 24.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 74.0% on time from 135 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 70.3% on time from 177 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 66.9% on time from 131 flights
- 2 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 54.8% on time from 162 flights
- 7 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 65.0% on time from 146 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why DFW → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DFW → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DFW → MDW, at 64.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 83.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 59.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier Airlines | 1,309 | 69.0% | 2.29% | -2 min | 14.5% |
Other ways to fly Dallas–Fort Worth to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFW→ORD Dallas–Fort Worth to Chicago | 20,478 | 72.9% | 2.02% | -3 min | 48 |
| DFW→MDW this route Dallas–Fort Worth to Chicago | 1,309 | 69.0% | 2.29% | -2 min | 34 |
DFW → ORD is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 72.9% on time, against 69.0% for DFW → MDW.
Flying to MDW from the Dallas–Fort Worth area? Compare DFW, DAL for MDW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 10.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.2% against 75.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,309 DFW → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed