Route profile
MDW→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Washington, 601 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 34% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,512 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → DCA arrives on time 74.7% of the time; the return trip, DCA → MDW, arrives on time 80.0% of the time, a 5.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → DCA spends 20.8 minutes on the ground on a 601-mile trip: 14.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to DCA struggles most at 1 PM: 64.7% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 13.9 points behind the 78.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.4 points.
MDW to DCA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 AM: 93.1% arrive on time, 5.6 points ahead of the 87.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
Tuesday is the day MDW to DCA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 75.3% on time where they average 81.8%, 6.5 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
In October, MDW to DCA runs 8.3 points below routes of similar length, 75.6% on time to 83.9%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on MDW to DCA arrive on time 74.7% of the time, 3.2 points below the 77.9% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.7 points.
MDW to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 64.7% | routes of similar length | 78.6% | −13.9 pts | 156 here, 125,833 there |
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 93.1% | routes of similar length | 87.5% | +5.6 pts | 303 here, 146,808 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 75.3% | routes of similar length | 81.8% | −6.5 pts | 943 here, 279,005 there |
| Month: October | 75.6% | routes of similar length | 83.9% | −8.3 pts | 549 here, 174,640 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 74.7% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | −3.2 pts | 6,369 here, 488,754 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 601 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → DCA cancelled 114 of 6,512 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 57. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 74.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 77 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 114 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
85 cancellations, 74.6% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
17 cancellations, 14.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
12 cancellations, 10.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
114 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 6,512 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.75% of the time and diverts 0.45% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,369 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,512 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.0% of the time, against 62.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 29.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 96.0% on time from 255 flights
- 6 AM: 89.5% on time from 535 flights
- 7 AM: 93.1% on time from 305 flights
- 8 AM: 91.7% on time from 223 flights
- 9 AM: 86.3% on time from 743 flights
- 10 AM: 84.0% on time from 165 flights
- 11 AM: 72.7% on time from 381 flights
- 12 PM: 75.6% on time from 734 flights
- 1 PM: 64.7% on time from 161 flights
- 2 PM: 69.9% on time from 295 flights
- 3 PM: 69.4% on time from 610 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 61.8% on time from 638 flights
- 6 PM: 56.1% on time from 356 flights
- 7 PM: 64.5% on time from 378 flights
- 8 PM: 64.7% on time from 611 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MDW → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → DCA, at 35.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,512 | 74.7% | 1.75% | -3 min | 7.5% |
Other ways to fly Chicago to Washington
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→DCA Chicago to Washington | 20,159 | 73.0% | 2.28% | -3 min | 46 |
| MDW→DCA this route Chicago to Washington | 6,512 | 74.7% | 1.75% | -3 min | 60 |
MDW → DCA is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 74.7% on time, against 73.0% for ORD → DCA.
Flying to DCA from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for DCA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.7%
- Feb: 76.0%
- Mar: 74.0%
- Apr: 80.9%
- May: 67.8%
- Jun: 70.6%
- Jul: 66.3%
- Aug: 76.3%
- Sep: 78.9%
- Oct: 75.6%
- Nov: 80.4%
- Dec: 76.0%
July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 14.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 63.4% from 186 flights
- August 2023: 74.0% from 186 flights
- September 2023: 70.4% from 180 flights
- October 2023: 74.2% from 186 flights
- November 2023: 86.8% from 174 flights
- December 2023: 80.5% from 180 flights
- January 2024: 71.1% from 178 flights
- February 2024: 94.6% from 166 flights
- March 2024: 83.1% from 172 flights
- April 2024: 87.1% from 171 flights
- May 2024: 66.5% from 178 flights
- June 2024: 77.5% from 174 flights
- July 2024: 68.8% from 181 flights
- August 2024: 78.8% from 181 flights
- September 2024: 88.1% from 176 flights
- October 2024: 84.1% from 182 flights
- November 2024: 85.5% from 168 flights
- December 2024: 80.6% from 172 flights
- January 2025: 82.8% from 179 flights
- February 2025: 59.1% from 156 flights
- March 2025: 77.5% from 180 flights
- April 2025: 84.9% from 173 flights
- May 2025: 75.1% from 176 flights
- June 2025: 67.4% from 176 flights
- July 2025: 65.1% from 181 flights
- August 2025: 76.0% from 181 flights
- September 2025: 78.4% from 176 flights
- October 2025: 68.5% from 181 flights
- November 2025: 67.9% from 170 flights
- December 2025: 67.1% from 173 flights
- January 2026: 76.2% from 179 flights
- February 2026: 72.9% from 157 flights
- March 2026: 61.5% from 181 flights
- April 2026: 70.9% from 173 flights
- May 2026: 61.9% from 176 flights
- June 2026: 66.9% from 176 flights
- July 2026: 68.3% from 177 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.7% against 77.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 7.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,512 MDW → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed