Route profile
DCA→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to Chicago, 601 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 44% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,511 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DCA → MDW arrives on time 80.0% of the time; the return trip, MDW → DCA, arrives on time 74.7% of the time, a 5.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DCA → MDW spends 21.5 minutes on the ground on a 601-mile trip: 16.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 4.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 91% of 4,023 comparable routes.
93.0% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 62.0% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 89.4% arrive on time, 8.7 points ahead of the 80.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10 points.
DCA to MDW struggles most at 9 PM: 62.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 5.5 points behind the 67.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
DCA to MDW holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 85.9% on time to their 79.5%, a 6.4 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
January is kinder to DCA to MDW than to routes of similar length: 85.9% on time against 79.4%, 6.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on DCA to MDW than on its routes of similar length: 80.0% on time here, 77.8% there, 2.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.6 points.
DCA to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 89.4% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | +8.7 pts | 236 here, 105,244 there |
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 62.0% | routes of similar length | 67.5% | −5.5 pts | 566 here, 66,840 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 85.9% | routes of similar length | 79.5% | +6.4 pts | 764 here, 251,326 there |
| Month: January | 85.9% | routes of similar length | 79.4% | +6.5 pts | 491 here, 147,365 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 77.8% | +2.2 pts | 6,352 here, 488,771 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 601 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DCA → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DCA → MDW cancelled 134 of 6,511 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 49. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 67.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 72 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 134 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
90 cancellations, 67.2% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
23 cancellations, 17.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
21 cancellations, 15.7% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
134 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 6,511 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.06% of the time and diverts 0.38% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,352 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,511 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.0% of the time, against 62.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 31.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 94.2% on time from 956 flights
- 7 AM: 90.5% on time from 170 flights
- 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 90.4% on time from 917 flights
- 10 AM: 87.2% on time from 159 flights
- 11 AM: 83.6% on time from 817 flights
- 12 PM: 89.4% on time from 237 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 76.0% on time from 231 flights
- 3 PM: 73.1% on time from 807 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 69.3% on time from 775 flights
- 7 PM: 64.4% on time from 297 flights
- 8 PM: 73.9% on time from 385 flights
- 9 PM: 62.0% on time from 593 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DCA → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → MDW, at 60.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.0% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 62.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,511 | 80.0% | 2.06% | -5 min | 7.2% |
Other ways to fly Washington to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA→ORD Washington to Chicago | 20,170 | 79.0% | 2.47% | -8 min | 55 |
| DCA→MDW this route Washington to Chicago | 6,511 | 80.0% | 2.06% | -5 min | 63 |
DCA → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 80.0% on time, against 79.0% for DCA → ORD.
Flying to MDW from the Washington area? Compare DCA, BWI, IAD for MDW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 10.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.9%
- Feb: 82.7%
- Mar: 77.1%
- Apr: 81.1%
- May: 73.4%
- Jun: 74.4%
- Jul: 67.2%
- Aug: 80.6%
- Sep: 87.5%
- Oct: 86.9%
- Nov: 85.3%
- Dec: 82.0%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 20.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 63.3% from 186 flights
- August 2023: 78.6% from 186 flights
- September 2023: 83.6% from 180 flights
- October 2023: 90.3% from 186 flights
- November 2023: 90.8% from 174 flights
- December 2023: 86.9% from 180 flights
- January 2024: 84.4% from 178 flights
- February 2024: 90.4% from 166 flights
- March 2024: 87.7% from 172 flights
- April 2024: 81.3% from 171 flights
- May 2024: 71.2% from 178 flights
- June 2024: 81.0% from 174 flights
- July 2024: 74.6% from 181 flights
- August 2024: 82.6% from 181 flights
- September 2024: 90.9% from 176 flights
- October 2024: 90.7% from 182 flights
- November 2024: 86.8% from 168 flights
- December 2024: 81.8% from 172 flights
- January 2025: 86.7% from 179 flights
- February 2025: 73.4% from 156 flights
- March 2025: 79.8% from 180 flights
- April 2025: 81.9% from 173 flights
- May 2025: 78.7% from 176 flights
- June 2025: 68.8% from 176 flights
- July 2025: 65.7% from 181 flights
- August 2025: 80.8% from 181 flights
- September 2025: 88.1% from 176 flights
- October 2025: 79.6% from 181 flights
- November 2025: 77.4% from 170 flights
- December 2025: 77.3% from 173 flights
- January 2026: 86.7% from 179 flights
- February 2026: 83.8% from 157 flights
- March 2026: 63.5% from 181 flights
- April 2026: 80.0% from 173 flights
- May 2026: 70.5% from 176 flights
- June 2026: 73.4% from 176 flights
- July 2026: 65.2% from 176 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.1% against 80.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,511 DCA → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed