Route profile
MDW→BWI
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Baltimore, 611 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 48% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,934 flights. How this is calculated
MDW → BWI arrives on time 78.5% of the time; the return trip, BWI → MDW, arrives on time 75.7% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → BWI spends 19.7 minutes on the ground on a 611-mile trip: 13.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at BWI.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to BWI differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to BWI struggles most at 7 PM: 53.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 14.3 points behind the 68.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.9 points.
MDW to BWI is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 95.0% arrive on time, 4.1 points ahead of the 90.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
April is kinder to MDW to BWI than to routes of similar length: 84.0% on time against 80.0%, 4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
In July, MDW to BWI runs 3.5 points below routes of similar length, 66.1% on time to 69.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 3.6 points.
MDW to BWI against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 53.9% | routes of similar length | 68.2% | −14.3 pts | 304 here, 121,765 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 95.0% | routes of similar length | 90.9% | +4.1 pts | 402 here, 148,283 there |
| Month: April | 84.0% | routes of similar length | 80.0% | +4.0 pts | 455 here, 167,619 there |
| Month: July | 66.1% | routes of similar length | 69.6% | −3.5 pts | 714 here, 232,116 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 611 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → BWI flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → BWI cancelled 109 of 5,934 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 54. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 72.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 75 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 109 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
79 cancellations, 72.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
17 cancellations, 15.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
13 cancellations, 11.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
109 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → BWI; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 5,934 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BWI after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 40% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.84% of the time and diverts 0.32% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,806 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,934 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → BWI flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.0% of the time, against 61.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 30.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.6% on time from 446 flights
- 6 AM: 95.0% on time from 409 flights
- 7 AM: 90.5% on time from 563 flights
- 8 AM: 90.5% on time from 407 flights
- 9 AM: 87.0% on time from 318 flights
- 10 AM: 83.3% on time from 205 flights
- 11 AM: 81.8% on time from 225 flights
- 12 PM: 82.0% on time from 412 flights
- 1 PM: 81.4% on time from 368 flights
- 2 PM: 74.2% on time from 335 flights
- 3 PM: 68.4% on time from 161 flights
- 4 PM: 71.9% on time from 331 flights
- 5 PM: 66.8% on time from 398 flights
- 6 PM: 70.8% on time from 331 flights
- 7 PM: 53.9% on time from 312 flights
- 8 PM: 60.1% on time from 314 flights
- 9 PM: 62.5% on time from 298 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → BWI runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → BWI. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → BWI, at 47.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 61.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,635 | 78.9% | 1.90% | -4 min | 6.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 299 | 70.8% | 0.67% | -6 min | 12.2% |
Southwest Airlines flew 95.0% of the 5,934 flights listed. Southwest Airlines cancelled 1.90% of its flights here against 0.67% for Frontier Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 8.1 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Washington
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→DCA Chicago to Washington | 20,159 | 73.0% | 2.28% | -3 min | 46 |
| MDW→BWI this route Chicago to Baltimore | 5,934 | 78.5% | 1.84% | -4 min | 65 |
MDW → BWI is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.5% on time, against 73.0% for ORD → DCA.
Flying to BWI from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for BWI, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 6.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.7%
- Feb: 84.5%
- Mar: 81.7%
- Apr: 84.0%
- May: 73.7%
- Jun: 71.8%
- Jul: 66.1%
- Aug: 76.0%
- Sep: 81.9%
- Oct: 85.2%
- Nov: 86.7%
- Dec: 78.1%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 20.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 66.0% from 168 flights
- August 2023: 77.2% from 174 flights
- September 2023: 72.7% from 164 flights
- October 2023: 83.8% from 186 flights
- November 2023: 88.5% from 149 flights
- December 2023: 77.0% from 153 flights
- January 2024: 66.9% from 138 flights
- February 2024: too few flights to score (115)
- March 2024: 84.4% from 154 flights
- April 2024: 83.3% from 175 flights
- May 2024: 67.6% from 188 flights
- June 2024: 70.7% from 185 flights
- July 2024: 67.2% from 195 flights
- August 2024: 73.4% from 183 flights
- September 2024: 86.6% from 179 flights
- October 2024: 87.5% from 184 flights
- November 2024: 88.4% from 156 flights
- December 2024: 81.3% from 155 flights
- January 2025: 89.0% from 141 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2025: 78.2% from 135 flights
- April 2025: 88.7% from 151 flights
- May 2025: 76.0% from 167 flights
- June 2025: 71.0% from 178 flights
- July 2025: 64.8% from 188 flights
- August 2025: 77.3% from 184 flights
- September 2025: 85.6% from 180 flights
- October 2025: 84.3% from 185 flights
- November 2025: 82.7% from 158 flights
- December 2025: 75.5% from 140 flights
- January 2026: 88.5% from 127 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- March 2026: 82.1% from 125 flights
- April 2026: 79.4% from 133 flights
- May 2026: 79.3% from 140 flights
- June 2026: 73.7% from 174 flights
- July 2026: 66.3% from 193 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.0% against 80.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,934 MDW → BWI flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed