Route profile
BWI→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Baltimore to Chicago, 611 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 38% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,932 flights. How this is calculated
BWI → MDW arrives on time 75.7% of the time; the return trip, MDW → BWI, arrives on time 78.5% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
BWI → MDW spends 19.8 minutes on the ground on a 611-mile trip: 14.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BWI and 5.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 99% of 4,023 comparable routes.
90.5% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 53.0% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BWI to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BWI to MDW struggles most at 9 PM: 52.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 15.5 points behind the 67.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.4 points.
BWI to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 5 PM: 75.9% arrive on time, 5.5 points ahead of the 70.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
Wednesday is the day BWI to MDW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 77.5% on time where they average 81.4%, 3.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 3.3 points.
In July, BWI to MDW runs 8.6 points below routes of similar length, 61.1% on time to 69.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
February is kinder to BWI to MDW than to routes of similar length: 87.3% on time against 81.8%, 5.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
BWI to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 52.1% | routes of similar length | 67.6% | −15.5 pts | 288 here, 68,946 there |
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 75.9% | routes of similar length | 70.4% | +5.5 pts | 340 here, 130,697 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 77.5% | routes of similar length | 81.4% | −3.9 pts | 818 here, 287,541 there |
| Month: July | 61.1% | routes of similar length | 69.7% | −8.6 pts | 699 here, 232,131 there |
| Month: February | 87.3% | routes of similar length | 81.8% | +5.5 pts | 346 here, 145,669 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 611 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BWI → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BWI → MDW cancelled 95 of 5,932 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 62. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 74.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 84 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 95 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
71 cancellations, 74.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
18 cancellations, 18.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
6 cancellations, 6.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
95 coded cancellations were recorded on BWI → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
45 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 5,932 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from BWI.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.60% of the time and diverts 0.46% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,810 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 45 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,932 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BWI → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.5% of the time, against 53.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 37.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.5% on time from 677 flights
- 7 AM: 88.6% on time from 439 flights
- 8 AM: 86.1% on time from 252 flights
- 9 AM: 80.9% on time from 197 flights
- 10 AM: 88.7% on time from 294 flights
- 11 AM: 86.6% on time from 154 flights
- 12 PM: 79.7% on time from 361 flights
- 1 PM: 83.5% on time from 401 flights
- 2 PM: 70.7% on time from 237 flights
- 3 PM: 77.4% on time from 296 flights
- 4 PM: 69.8% on time from 441 flights
- 5 PM: 75.9% on time from 342 flights
- 6 PM: 61.5% on time from 475 flights
- 7 PM: 64.8% on time from 466 flights
- 8 PM: 61.6% on time from 405 flights
- 9 PM: 52.1% on time from 296 flights
- 10 PM: 54.5% on time from 199 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BWI → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BWI → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BWI → MDW, at 46.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.5% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 53.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,633 | 76.1% | 1.63% | -3 min | 6.7% |
| Frontier Airlines | 299 | 67.5% | 1.00% | -5 min | 16.9% |
Southwest Airlines flew 95.0% of the 5,932 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 8.6 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Washington to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA→ORD Washington to Chicago | 20,170 | 79.0% | 2.47% | -8 min | 55 |
| BWI→MDW this route Baltimore to Chicago | 5,932 | 75.7% | 1.60% | -3 min | 61 |
BWI → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 75.7% on time, against 79.0% for DCA → ORD.
Flying to MDW from the Washington area? Compare BWI, DCA, IAD for MDW, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.0%
- Feb: 87.3%
- Mar: 73.7%
- Apr: 80.7%
- May: 71.5%
- Jun: 70.6%
- Jul: 61.1%
- Aug: 71.2%
- Sep: 84.2%
- Oct: 78.7%
- Nov: 83.6%
- Dec: 76.3%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 26.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 55.1% from 166 flights
- August 2023: 72.8% from 174 flights
- September 2023: 83.8% from 164 flights
- October 2023: 76.8% from 191 flights
- November 2023: 82.4% from 150 flights
- December 2023: 81.9% from 154 flights
- January 2024: 74.4% from 130 flights
- February 2024: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2024: 74.5% from 139 flights
- April 2024: 76.6% from 169 flights
- May 2024: 60.3% from 189 flights
- June 2024: 72.8% from 185 flights
- July 2024: 62.2% from 195 flights
- August 2024: 66.9% from 183 flights
- September 2024: 82.8% from 180 flights
- October 2024: 82.6% from 184 flights
- November 2024: 87.7% from 156 flights
- December 2024: 80.5% from 155 flights
- January 2025: 81.6% from 143 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- March 2025: 77.9% from 141 flights
- April 2025: 83.4% from 164 flights
- May 2025: 77.1% from 181 flights
- June 2025: 69.3% from 179 flights
- July 2025: 62.0% from 187 flights
- August 2025: 74.0% from 183 flights
- September 2025: 86.1% from 181 flights
- October 2025: 76.6% from 184 flights
- November 2025: 80.4% from 159 flights
- December 2025: 65.2% from 138 flights
- January 2026: 86.7% from 127 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- March 2026: 68.1% from 125 flights
- April 2026: 82.3% from 132 flights
- May 2026: 79.3% from 140 flights
- June 2026: 69.5% from 171 flights
- July 2026: 64.5% from 181 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.0% against 77.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 1.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,932 BWI → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed