Route profile
MDW→BNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Nashville, 395 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 73% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,025 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → BNA arrives on time 81.4% of the time; the return trip, BNA → MDW, arrives on time 81.0% of the time.
MDW → BNA spends 20.2 minutes on the ground on a 395-mile trip: 13.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 6.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to BNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to BNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 88.6% arrive on time, 7.9 points ahead of the 80.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.2 points.
MDW to BNA holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 79.7% on time to their 74.9%, a 4.8 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.9 points.
February is kinder to MDW to BNA than to routes of similar length: 90.4% on time against 81.2%, 9.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on MDW to BNA than on its routes of similar length: 81.4% on time here, 79.1% there, 2.3 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4 points.
MDW to BNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 88.6% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | +7.9 pts | 228 here, 85,950 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 79.7% | routes of similar length | 74.9% | +4.8 pts | 917 here, 230,701 there |
| Month: February | 90.4% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +9.2 pts | 374 here, 110,004 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 81.4% | routes of similar length | 79.1% | +2.3 pts | 5,944 here, 521,595 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 395 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → BNA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → BNA cancelled 71 of 6,025 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 85. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 81.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 104 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 71 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
58 cancellations, 81.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
13 cancellations, 18.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
71 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → BNA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
34 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 6,025 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BNA after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 2.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.18% of the time and diverts 0.17% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,944 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 34 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,025 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.2% of the time, against 68.2% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 26.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 96.6% on time from 542 flights
- 6 AM: 96.2% on time from 376 flights
- 7 AM: 91.3% on time from 340 flights
- 8 AM: 92.0% on time from 499 flights
- 9 AM: 89.3% on time from 377 flights
- 10 AM: 83.8% on time from 187 flights
- 11 AM: 80.7% on time from 398 flights
- 12 PM: 88.6% on time from 228 flights
- 1 PM: 81.4% on time from 253 flights
- 2 PM: 81.5% on time from 251 flights
- 3 PM: 75.4% on time from 333 flights
- 4 PM: 72.9% on time from 295 flights
- 5 PM: 70.9% on time from 333 flights
- 6 PM: 66.1% on time from 380 flights
- 7 PM: 74.0% on time from 329 flights
- 8 PM: 71.9% on time from 262 flights
- 9 PM: 68.3% on time from 390 flights
- 10 PM: 67.9% on time from 252 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → BNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → BNA, at 50.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.2% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 68.2%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,025 | 81.4% | 1.18% | -7 min | 5.6% |
Other ways to fly Chicago to Nashville
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→BNA Chicago to Nashville | 15,023 | 75.3% | 1.70% | -5 min | 54 |
| MDW→BNA this route Chicago to Nashville | 6,025 | 81.4% | 1.18% | -7 min | 74 |
MDW → BNA is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 81.4% on time, against 75.3% for ORD → BNA.
Flying to BNA from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for BNA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 7.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.2%
- Feb: 90.4%
- Mar: 82.1%
- Apr: 84.2%
- May: 77.1%
- Jun: 74.6%
- Jul: 70.7%
- Aug: 80.7%
- Sep: 87.6%
- Oct: 81.8%
- Nov: 86.8%
- Dec: 83.7%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 19.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 68.7% from 198 flights
- August 2023: 83.0% from 188 flights
- September 2023: 85.0% from 148 flights
- October 2023: 78.1% from 196 flights
- November 2023: 84.7% from 177 flights
- December 2023: 84.4% from 182 flights
- January 2024: 78.7% from 152 flights
- February 2024: 92.5% from 133 flights
- March 2024: 82.1% from 158 flights
- April 2024: 85.6% from 168 flights
- May 2024: 72.0% from 177 flights
- June 2024: 76.3% from 170 flights
- July 2024: 78.6% from 176 flights
- August 2024: 81.6% from 174 flights
- September 2024: 85.7% from 155 flights
- October 2024: 91.1% from 168 flights
- November 2024: 91.8% from 173 flights
- December 2024: 86.2% from 167 flights
- January 2025: 90.0% from 134 flights
- February 2025: 89.3% from 123 flights
- March 2025: 85.4% from 159 flights
- April 2025: 82.9% from 164 flights
- May 2025: 85.8% from 170 flights
- June 2025: 75.7% from 171 flights
- July 2025: 70.3% from 175 flights
- August 2025: 77.2% from 168 flights
- September 2025: 91.8% from 159 flights
- October 2025: 76.9% from 169 flights
- November 2025: 83.6% from 158 flights
- December 2025: 80.3% from 152 flights
- January 2026: 87.2% from 132 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- March 2026: 78.8% from 164 flights
- April 2026: 84.0% from 166 flights
- May 2026: 73.8% from 172 flights
- June 2026: 71.4% from 151 flights
- July 2026: 65.0% from 159 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.6% against 84.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,025 MDW → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed