Route profile
BNA→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Nashville to Chicago, 395 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 73% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,037 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BNA → MDW arrives on time 81.0% of the time; the return trip, MDW → BNA, arrives on time 81.4% of the time.
BNA → MDW spends 18.7 minutes on the ground on a 395-mile trip: 13.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BNA and 5.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 90% of 5,368 comparable routes.
75.0% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 84.2% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 9.2 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BNA to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BNA to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 96.0% arrive on time, 9.6 points ahead of the 86.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.1 points.
BNA to MDW holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 87.1% on time to their 81.0%, a 6.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
February is kinder to BNA to MDW than to routes of similar length: 88.7% on time against 81.2%, 7.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.3 points.
BNA to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 96.0% | routes of similar length | 86.4% | +9.6 pts | 223 here, 112,227 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 87.1% | routes of similar length | 81.0% | +6.1 pts | 629 here, 185,449 there |
| Month: February | 88.7% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +7.5 pts | 362 here, 110,016 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 395 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BNA → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BNA → MDW cancelled 72 of 6,037 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 84. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 88.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 94 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 72 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
64 cancellations, 88.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
5 cancellations, 6.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
3 cancellations, 4.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
72 coded cancellations were recorded on BNA → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
35 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 6,037 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from BNA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 2.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.19% of the time and diverts 0.31% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,946 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 35 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,037 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BNA → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 95.1% of the time, against 69.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 96.8% on time from 513 flights
- 6 AM: 93.3% on time from 353 flights
- 7 AM: 93.7% on time from 391 flights
- 8 AM: 96.0% on time from 223 flights
- 9 AM: 85.3% on time from 297 flights
- 10 AM: 83.5% on time from 186 flights
- 11 AM: 88.1% on time from 304 flights
- 12 PM: 87.6% on time from 246 flights
- 1 PM: 83.2% on time from 457 flights
- 2 PM: 83.8% on time from 211 flights
- 3 PM: 75.5% on time from 339 flights
- 4 PM: 72.4% on time from 514 flights
- 5 PM: 70.8% on time from 201 flights
- 6 PM: 68.5% on time from 281 flights
- 7 PM: 65.3% on time from 401 flights
- 8 PM: 73.7% on time from 360 flights
- 9 PM: 73.0% on time from 448 flights
- 10 PM: 70.6% on time from 312 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BNA → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BNA → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BNA → MDW, at 59.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 95.1% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 69.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,037 | 81.0% | 1.19% | -7 min | 5.2% |
Other ways to fly Nashville to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNA→ORD Nashville to Chicago | 15,001 | 76.1% | 1.91% | -4 min | 52 |
| BNA→MDW this route Nashville to Chicago | 6,037 | 81.0% | 1.19% | -7 min | 74 |
BNA → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 81.0% on time, against 76.1% for BNA → ORD.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 83.4%
- Feb: 88.7%
- Mar: 83.5%
- Apr: 83.6%
- May: 73.5%
- Jun: 70.0%
- Jul: 68.5%
- Aug: 82.7%
- Sep: 88.5%
- Oct: 88.0%
- Nov: 86.9%
- Dec: 83.5%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 20.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 70.1% from 198 flights
- August 2023: 84.3% from 192 flights
- September 2023: 87.3% from 150 flights
- October 2023: 88.7% from 196 flights
- November 2023: 91.0% from 178 flights
- December 2023: 88.1% from 182 flights
- January 2024: 76.6% from 147 flights
- February 2024: 95.3% from 129 flights
- March 2024: 86.3% from 162 flights
- April 2024: 91.6% from 167 flights
- May 2024: 76.6% from 173 flights
- June 2024: 77.4% from 169 flights
- July 2024: 74.3% from 176 flights
- August 2024: 87.2% from 174 flights
- September 2024: 88.2% from 154 flights
- October 2024: 96.4% from 168 flights
- November 2024: 87.8% from 173 flights
- December 2024: 81.2% from 170 flights
- January 2025: 83.6% from 130 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2025: 84.8% from 159 flights
- April 2025: 83.5% from 164 flights
- May 2025: 83.4% from 169 flights
- June 2025: 76.2% from 172 flights
- July 2025: 73.3% from 175 flights
- August 2025: 76.2% from 168 flights
- September 2025: 89.9% from 159 flights
- October 2025: 78.8% from 170 flights
- November 2025: 81.2% from 160 flights
- December 2025: 80.8% from 152 flights
- January 2026: 90.2% from 131 flights
- February 2026: 83.2% from 120 flights
- March 2026: 79.2% from 164 flights
- April 2026: 75.3% from 166 flights
- May 2026: 60.6% from 171 flights
- June 2026: 54.9% from 157 flights
- July 2026: 56.3% from 176 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.0% against 84.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 9.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,037 BNA → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed