Route profile
MCO→STL
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to St. Louis, 882 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 37% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,623 flights. How this is calculated
MCO → STL arrives on time 75.3% of the time; the return trip, STL → MCO, arrives on time 78.4% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MCO → STL spends 23.5 minutes on the ground on an 882-mile trip: 17.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at STL.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 94% of 4,023 comparable routes.
93.3% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 60.8% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to STL differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to STL struggles most at 12 PM: 71.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.1 points behind the 79.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.2 points.
MCO to STL is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 92.9% arrive on time, 6.5 points ahead of the 86.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
Sunday is the day MCO to STL slips furthest against routes of similar length, 69.3% on time where they average 74.2%, 4.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.5 points.
In March, MCO to STL runs 6.3 points below routes of similar length, 70.7% on time to 77.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.2 points.
MCO to STL against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 71.2% | routes of similar length | 79.3% | −8.1 pts | 267 here, 163,687 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 92.9% | routes of similar length | 86.4% | +6.5 pts | 506 here, 194,715 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 69.3% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | −4.9 pts | 1,180 here, 414,193 there |
| Month: March | 70.7% | routes of similar length | 77.0% | −6.3 pts | 720 here, 240,736 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 882 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MCO → STL flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → STL cancelled 80 of 7,623 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 95. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 58.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 162 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 80 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
47 cancellations, 58.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
18 cancellations, 22.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
15 cancellations, 18.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
80 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → STL; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 7,623 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at STL after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.05% of the time and diverts 0.28% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,522 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,623 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → STL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.3% of the time, against 60.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 32.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.7% on time from 608 flights
- 7 AM: 93.8% on time from 539 flights
- 8 AM: 92.9% on time from 514 flights
- 9 AM: 89.0% on time from 470 flights
- 10 AM: 83.2% on time from 395 flights
- 11 AM: 81.8% on time from 288 flights
- 12 PM: 71.2% on time from 270 flights
- 1 PM: 79.8% on time from 266 flights
- 2 PM: 71.7% on time from 484 flights
- 3 PM: 69.0% on time from 425 flights
- 4 PM: 65.4% on time from 275 flights
- 5 PM: 69.6% on time from 370 flights
- 6 PM: 64.2% on time from 354 flights
- 7 PM: 63.2% on time from 639 flights
- 8 PM: 62.7% on time from 454 flights
- 9 PM: 63.2% on time from 562 flights
- 10 PM: 59.8% on time from 567 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → STL runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → STL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → STL, at 47.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.3% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 60.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,082 | 76.0% | 0.89% | -3 min | 7.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 1,147 | 74.7% | 1.39% | -8 min | 12.2% |
| Spirit Airlines | 394 | 65.7% | 2.54% | 1 min | 14.4% |
Southwest Airlines flew 79.8% of the 7,623 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.54% of its flights here against 0.89% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 10.3 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| F92635 Frontier Airlines | 6:00 AM | 641 | 79.0% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 12.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.2%
- Feb: 80.3%
- Mar: 70.7%
- Apr: 80.9%
- May: 73.9%
- Jun: 69.0%
- Jul: 65.5%
- Aug: 70.4%
- Sep: 83.3%
- Oct: 77.5%
- Nov: 83.4%
- Dec: 77.0%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 17.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 52.8% from 217 flights
- August 2023: 68.6% from 193 flights
- September 2023: 74.3% from 191 flights
- October 2023: 76.2% from 214 flights
- November 2023: 77.4% from 208 flights
- December 2023: 78.6% from 231 flights
- January 2024: 69.2% from 213 flights
- February 2024: 79.0% from 195 flights
- March 2024: 62.3% from 245 flights
- April 2024: 81.1% from 211 flights
- May 2024: 70.6% from 213 flights
- June 2024: 65.9% from 207 flights
- July 2024: 70.4% from 209 flights
- August 2024: 74.2% from 201 flights
- September 2024: 88.5% from 175 flights
- October 2024: 85.6% from 190 flights
- November 2024: 91.0% from 177 flights
- December 2024: 79.1% from 202 flights
- January 2025: 82.0% from 192 flights
- February 2025: 81.6% from 175 flights
- March 2025: 75.7% from 225 flights
- April 2025: 80.2% from 210 flights
- May 2025: 72.6% from 221 flights
- June 2025: 68.3% from 202 flights
- July 2025: 72.5% from 209 flights
- August 2025: 68.0% from 183 flights
- September 2025: 88.5% from 156 flights
- October 2025: 71.8% from 196 flights
- November 2025: 83.1% from 203 flights
- December 2025: 73.5% from 221 flights
- January 2026: 80.8% from 213 flights
- February 2026: 80.4% from 196 flights
- March 2026: 74.1% from 265 flights
- April 2026: 81.4% from 223 flights
- May 2026: 78.7% from 216 flights
- June 2026: 72.9% from 204 flights
- July 2026: 66.8% from 221 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.4% against 78.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,623 MCO → STL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed