Route profile
STL→MCO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from St. Louis to Orlando, 882 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 48% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,620 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
STL → MCO arrives on time 78.4% of the time; the return trip, MCO → STL, arrives on time 75.3% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
STL → MCO spends 22.3 minutes on the ground on an 882-mile trip: 12.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at STL and 10.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where STL to MCO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
STL to MCO is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 73.5% arrive on time, 6.4 points ahead of the 67.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.7 points.
STL to MCO struggles most at 7 AM: 84.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 4 points behind the 88.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
Saturday is the day STL to MCO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.5% on time where they average 78.1%, 4.6 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
April is kinder to STL to MCO than to routes of similar length: 84.4% on time against 79.9%, 4.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on STL to MCO than on its routes of similar length: 80.2% on time here, 76.4% there, 3.8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.8 points.
STL to MCO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 73.5% | routes of similar length | 67.1% | +6.4 pts | 569 here, 172,139 there |
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 84.5% | routes of similar length | 88.5% | −4.0 pts | 317 here, 220,337 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 73.5% | routes of similar length | 78.1% | −4.6 pts | 1,120 here, 370,805 there |
| Month: April | 84.4% | routes of similar length | 79.9% | +4.5 pts | 634 here, 233,631 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 80.2% | routes of similar length | 76.4% | +3.8 pts | 6,000 here, 774,819 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 882 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why STL → MCO flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
STL → MCO cancelled 94 of 7,620 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 81. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 56.4% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 144 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 94 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
53 cancellations, 56.4% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
28 cancellations, 29.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
13 cancellations, 13.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
94 coded cancellations were recorded on STL → MCO; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
46 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 7,620 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MCO after arriving from STL.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.23% of the time and diverts 0.34% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,500 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 46 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,620 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
STL → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.9% of the time, against 69.8% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 21.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.3% on time from 788 flights
- 6 AM: 95.5% on time from 358 flights
- 7 AM: 84.5% on time from 321 flights
- 8 AM: 87.8% on time from 747 flights
- 9 AM: 85.2% on time from 289 flights
- 10 AM: 85.8% on time from 230 flights
- 11 AM: 79.7% on time from 227 flights
- 12 PM: 80.7% on time from 308 flights
- 1 PM: 75.4% on time from 337 flights
- 2 PM: 73.8% on time from 469 flights
- 3 PM: 69.2% on time from 521 flights
- 4 PM: 70.8% on time from 603 flights
- 5 PM: 69.4% on time from 787 flights
- 6 PM: 68.9% on time from 478 flights
- 7 PM: 73.5% on time from 577 flights
- 8 PM: 68.0% on time from 489 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why STL → MCO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for STL → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on STL → MCO, at 46.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.9% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 69.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,080 | 80.2% | 0.94% | -6 min | 6.3% |
| Frontier Airlines | 1,147 | 72.9% | 2.09% | -10 min | 12.0% |
| Spirit Airlines | 393 | 65.3% | 3.31% | -2 min | 16.8% |
Southwest Airlines flew 79.8% of the 7,620 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 3.31% of its flights here against 0.94% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 14.9 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Saturday the least, a gap of 10.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.2%
- Feb: 83.0%
- Mar: 74.0%
- Apr: 84.4%
- May: 76.2%
- Jun: 75.5%
- Jul: 70.2%
- Aug: 77.4%
- Sep: 85.9%
- Oct: 83.0%
- Nov: 84.5%
- Dec: 75.2%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 61.7% from 218 flights
- August 2023: 73.2% from 193 flights
- September 2023: 79.3% from 192 flights
- October 2023: 85.5% from 214 flights
- November 2023: 79.9% from 209 flights
- December 2023: 75.5% from 231 flights
- January 2024: 64.2% from 208 flights
- February 2024: 80.1% from 191 flights
- March 2024: 72.2% from 232 flights
- April 2024: 83.6% from 205 flights
- May 2024: 74.6% from 209 flights
- June 2024: 79.7% from 205 flights
- July 2024: 70.7% from 209 flights
- August 2024: 83.9% from 201 flights
- September 2024: 93.6% from 174 flights
- October 2024: 89.1% from 190 flights
- November 2024: 92.7% from 177 flights
- December 2024: 80.5% from 201 flights
- January 2025: 85.7% from 197 flights
- February 2025: 84.6% from 182 flights
- March 2025: 78.6% from 226 flights
- April 2025: 83.5% from 208 flights
- May 2025: 74.8% from 218 flights
- June 2025: 71.6% from 201 flights
- July 2025: 74.3% from 209 flights
- August 2025: 75.0% from 184 flights
- September 2025: 85.2% from 155 flights
- October 2025: 74.7% from 195 flights
- November 2025: 82.0% from 203 flights
- December 2025: 70.0% from 222 flights
- January 2026: 82.1% from 215 flights
- February 2026: 84.4% from 195 flights
- March 2026: 71.6% from 269 flights
- April 2026: 85.9% from 228 flights
- May 2026: 79.2% from 218 flights
- June 2026: 75.0% from 204 flights
- July 2026: 73.9% from 232 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.9% against 82.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,620 STL → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed