Route profile
JFK→SAN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to San Diego, 2,446 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 64% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,468 flights. How this is calculated
JFK → SAN arrives on time 80.6% of the time; the return trip, SAN → JFK, arrives on time 80.0% of the time.
JFK → SAN spends 36.5 minutes on the ground on a 2,446-mile trip: 29.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 7.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at SAN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to SAN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to SAN is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 76.7% arrive on time, 7.1 points ahead of the 69.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.3 points.
JFK to SAN holds up on Tuesdays better than routes of similar length do: 86.4% on time to their 81.7%, a 4.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
May is kinder to JFK to SAN than to routes of similar length: 84.8% on time against 77.6%, 7.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
In September, JFK to SAN runs 3.8 points below routes of similar length, 78.2% on time to 82.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
JetBlue does better on JFK to SAN than on its routes of similar length: 81.9% on time here, 75.1% there, 6.8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
JFK to SAN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 76.7% | routes of similar length | 69.6% | +7.1 pts | 673 here, 34,841 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 86.4% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | +4.7 pts | 1,015 here, 144,014 there |
| Month: May | 84.8% | routes of similar length | 77.6% | +7.2 pts | 624 here, 90,757 there |
| Month: September | 78.2% | routes of similar length | 82.0% | −3.8 pts | 623 here, 83,389 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 81.9% | routes of similar length | 75.1% | +6.8 pts | 2,246 here, 117,744 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,446 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → SAN flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → SAN cancelled 124 of 7,468 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 60. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 46.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 131 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 124 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
57 cancellations, 46.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
46 cancellations, 37.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
21 cancellations, 16.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
124 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → SAN; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
37 min late
against a median of 11 min early
Percentiles over 7,468 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SAN after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.66% of the time and diverts 0.52% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,305 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 37 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,468 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → SAN flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.5% of the time, against 74.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 10.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 89.4% on time from 401 flights
- 7 AM: 85.5% on time from 313 flights
- 8 AM: 84.2% on time from 1,256 flights
- 9 AM: 82.8% on time from 858 flights
- 10 AM: 79.6% on time from 215 flights
- 11 AM: 83.1% on time from 140 flights
- 12 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 80.8% on time from 476 flights
- 4 PM: 78.7% on time from 1,858 flights
- 5 PM: 77.4% on time from 714 flights
- 6 PM: 71.0% on time from 191 flights
- 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 76.7% on time from 698 flights
- 9 PM: 74.7% on time from 311 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why JFK → SAN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → SAN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,146 | 81.8% | 1.53% | -14 min | 6.0% |
| JetBlue | 2,292 | 81.9% | 1.61% | -12 min | 5.3% |
| Alaska Airlines | 2,030 | 77.4% | 1.92% | -6 min | 6.8% |
Delta Air Lines flew 42.1% of the 7,468 flights listed.
JetBlue arrived on time 4.5 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
B6189 (7:30 AM) arrived on time 87.1% of the time, 13.7 points more often than AS25 (4:00 PM) at 73.4%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.0%
- Feb: 77.7%
- Mar: 84.3%
- Apr: 84.2%
- May: 84.8%
- Jun: 77.7%
- Jul: 72.0%
- Aug: 79.5%
- Sep: 78.2%
- Oct: 81.7%
- Nov: 83.5%
- Dec: 84.3%
July is historically the weakest month and May the strongest, a spread of 12.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 71.5% from 211 flights
- August 2023: 77.5% from 203 flights
- September 2023: 70.4% from 225 flights
- October 2023: 82.9% from 213 flights
- November 2023: 85.1% from 215 flights
- December 2023: 90.2% from 224 flights
- January 2024: 85.7% from 168 flights
- February 2024: 81.9% from 151 flights
- March 2024: 86.6% from 187 flights
- April 2024: 85.6% from 195 flights
- May 2024: 84.3% from 204 flights
- June 2024: 82.4% from 207 flights
- July 2024: 72.9% from 217 flights
- August 2024: 77.8% from 217 flights
- September 2024: 87.6% from 210 flights
- October 2024: 88.7% from 216 flights
- November 2024: 85.2% from 212 flights
- December 2024: 84.8% from 212 flights
- January 2025: 87.6% from 172 flights
- February 2025: 69.9% from 156 flights
- March 2025: 79.4% from 193 flights
- April 2025: 81.6% from 208 flights
- May 2025: 84.7% from 217 flights
- June 2025: 75.6% from 207 flights
- July 2025: 71.1% from 213 flights
- August 2025: 83.3% from 211 flights
- September 2025: 76.8% from 206 flights
- October 2025: 73.2% from 213 flights
- November 2025: 79.9% from 204 flights
- December 2025: 77.3% from 211 flights
- January 2026: 72.9% from 179 flights
- February 2026: 81.8% from 154 flights
- March 2026: 86.8% from 201 flights
- April 2026: 85.4% from 206 flights
- May 2026: 85.4% from 208 flights
- June 2026: 75.0% from 207 flights
- July 2026: 72.4% from 215 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.1% against 81.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,468 JFK → SAN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed