Route profile
JFK→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Minneapolis, 1,029 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 45% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,824 flights. How this is calculated
JFK → MSP arrives on time 80.8% of the time; the return trip, MSP → JFK, arrives on time 81.0% of the time.
JFK → MSP spends 34.6 minutes on the ground on a 1,029-mile trip: 27.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 7.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 88.7% arrive on time, 10.5 points ahead of the 78.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.3 points.
JFK to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 80.9% on time to their 73.2%, a 7.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
March is kinder to JFK to MSP than to routes of similar length: 88.4% on time against 75.2%, 13.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.5 points.
JFK to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 88.7% | routes of similar length | 78.2% | +10.5 pts | 336 here, 160,263 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 80.9% | routes of similar length | 73.2% | +7.7 pts | 398 here, 408,914 there |
| Month: March | 88.4% | routes of similar length | 75.2% | +13.2 pts | 147 here, 245,192 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,029 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
50 min late
against a median of 11 min early
JFK → MSP has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 11 min early, but the worst tenth are 61 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 2,824 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.7% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.27% of the time and diverts 0.21% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,782 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 50 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,824 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → MSP flights departing 12–3 PM arrived on time 88.7% of the time, against 64.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 24.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 88.0% on time from 305 flights
- 7 AM: 89.1% on time from 514 flights
- 8 AM: 87.2% on time from 126 flights
- 9 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 83.9% on time from 618 flights
- 12 PM: 88.7% on time from 338 flights
- 1 PM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 63.7% on time from 299 flights
- 6 PM: 71.4% on time from 306 flights
- 7 PM: 69.0% on time from 248 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why JFK → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,344 | 80.9% | 1.28% | -12 min | 8.5% |
| Endeavor Air | 306 | 77.7% | 1.63% | -12 min | 9.0% |
Delta Air Lines flew 88.5% of the 2,650 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 3.2 percentage points more often than Endeavor Air on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2390 Delta Air Lines | 7:30 AM | 600 | 87.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Saturday the least, a gap of 6.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.0%
- Feb: no data
- Mar: 88.4%
- Apr: 81.0%
- May: 83.8%
- Jun: 72.7%
- Jul: 70.9%
- Aug: 75.3%
- Sep: 89.0%
- Oct: 82.7%
- Nov: 88.5%
- Dec: 80.6%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 18.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-06 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.8% against 80.1% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,824 JFK → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed