Route profile
MSP→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to New York, 1,029 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 62% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,826 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → JFK arrives on time 81.0% of the time; the return trip, JFK → MSP, arrives on time 80.8% of the time.
MSP → JFK spends 30.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,029-mile trip: 19.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 11.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 96% of 4,467 comparable routes.
83.0% on time on the best day (Tuesday) against 79.2% on the worst (Saturday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to JFK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 73.7% arrive on time, 7.7 points ahead of the 66.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
MSP to JFK holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 81.5% on time to their 75.4%, a 6.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
May is kinder to MSP to JFK than to routes of similar length: 81.4% on time against 74.1%, 7.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
MSP to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 73.7% | routes of similar length | 66.0% | +7.7 pts | 870 here, 175,760 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 81.5% | routes of similar length | 75.4% | +6.1 pts | 394 here, 412,895 there |
| Month: May | 81.4% | routes of similar length | 74.1% | +7.3 pts | 264 here, 230,223 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,029 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
40 min late
against a median of 12 min early
Percentiles over 2,826 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 30% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.24% of the time and diverts 0.74% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,770 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 40 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,826 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.3% of the time, against 73.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 16.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 88.9% on time from 384 flights
- 7 AM: 91.3% on time from 512 flights
- 8 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 77.8% on time from 412 flights
- 1 PM: 78.8% on time from 301 flights
- 2 PM: 78.3% on time from 223 flights
- 3 PM to 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 73.7% on time from 884 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,347 | 81.1% | 1.24% | -12 min | 7.6% |
| Endeavor Air | 306 | 84.7% | 1.63% | -16 min | 4.7% |
Delta Air Lines flew 88.5% of the 2,653 flights listed.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 3.6 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Saturday the least, a gap of 3.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 75.2%
- Feb: no data
- Mar: 76.7%
- Apr: 85.3%
- May: 81.4%
- Jun: 76.2%
- Jul: 74.6%
- Aug: 81.4%
- Sep: 85.6%
- Oct: 85.6%
- Nov: 89.6%
- Dec: 75.6%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 15.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-06 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.6% against 77.5% in the 12 months before — improving by 3.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,826 MSP → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed