Route profile
EWR→BNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Nashville, 748 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 20% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,003 flights. How this is calculated
EWR → BNA arrives on time 77.0% of the time; the return trip, BNA → EWR, arrives on time 77.4% of the time.
EWR → BNA spends 33.3 minutes on the ground on a 748-mile trip: 23.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 10.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 97% of 3,357 comparable routes.
87.8% on time in a typical February, against 59.9% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where EWR to BNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
EWR to BNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 5 PM: 76.2% arrive on time, 7.7 points ahead of the 68.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
EWR to BNA struggles most at 4 PM: 63.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.3 points behind the 69.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
Thursday is the day EWR to BNA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.9% on time where they average 76.7%, 3.8 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 3.9 points.
In July, EWR to BNA runs 8.8 points below routes of similar length, 59.9% on time to 68.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
February is kinder to EWR to BNA than to routes of similar length: 87.8% on time against 82.4%, 5.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
EWR to BNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 76.2% | routes of similar length | 68.5% | +7.7 pts | 239 here, 120,677 there |
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 63.1% | routes of similar length | 69.4% | −6.3 pts | 452 here, 120,501 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 72.9% | routes of similar length | 76.7% | −3.8 pts | 877 here, 309,484 there |
| Month: July | 59.9% | routes of similar length | 68.7% | −8.8 pts | 669 here, 232,388 there |
| Month: February | 87.8% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | +5.4 pts | 362 here, 145,326 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 748 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why EWR → BNA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
EWR → BNA cancelled 163 of 6,003 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 37. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 68.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 54 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 163 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
111 cancellations, 68.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
27 cancellations, 16.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
25 cancellations, 15.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
163 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → BNA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
57 min late
against a median of 8 min early
EWR → BNA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth are 65 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,003 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BNA after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.9% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.72% of the time and diverts 0.18% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,829 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 57 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,003 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.4% of the time, against 62.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 26.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 89.3% on time from 313 flights
- 7 AM: 90.0% on time from 379 flights
- 8 AM: 82.4% on time from 171 flights
- 9 AM: 84.5% on time from 246 flights
- 10 AM: 82.7% on time from 359 flights
- 11 AM: 83.1% on time from 507 flights
- 12 PM: 86.7% on time from 266 flights
- 1 PM: 82.6% on time from 314 flights
- 2 PM: 77.8% on time from 698 flights
- 3 PM: 75.2% on time from 620 flights
- 4 PM: 63.1% on time from 473 flights
- 5 PM: 76.2% on time from 244 flights
- 6 PM: 68.3% on time from 306 flights
- 7 PM: 64.7% on time from 227 flights
- 8 PM: 70.8% on time from 414 flights
- 9 PM: 65.3% on time from 353 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why EWR → BNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → BNA, at 40.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.4% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 62.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 4,451 | 76.2% | 2.43% | -7 min | 9.9% |
| Spirit Airlines | 797 | 74.9% | 3.01% | -9 min | 13.2% |
| Republic Airways | 755 | 84.1% | 4.11% | -12 min | 4.1% |
United Airlines flew 74.1% of the 6,003 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.11% of its flights here against 2.43% for United Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 9.2 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly New York to Nashville
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→BNA New York to Nashville | 12,768 | 78.7% | 3.49% | -9 min | 53 |
| EWR→BNA this route Newark to Nashville | 6,003 | 77.0% | 2.72% | -8 min | 53 |
Flying to BNA from the New York area? Compare EWR, LGA, JFK for BNA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| UA1608 United Airlines | 3:00 PM | 811 | 75.2% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 9.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 83.9%
- Feb: 87.8%
- Mar: 83.0%
- Apr: 80.8%
- May: 76.9%
- Jun: 77.2%
- Jul: 59.9%
- Aug: 73.2%
- Sep: 81.8%
- Oct: 76.1%
- Nov: 78.0%
- Dec: 76.8%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 27.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 51.1% from 212 flights
- August 2023: 69.6% from 183 flights
- September 2023: 84.9% from 200 flights
- October 2023: 89.6% from 183 flights
- November 2023: 90.4% from 156 flights
- December 2023: 93.1% from 131 flights
- January 2024: 80.3% from 136 flights
- February 2024: 90.8% from 131 flights
- March 2024: 88.4% from 146 flights
- April 2024: 79.1% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 75.0% from 202 flights
- June 2024: 78.8% from 170 flights
- July 2024: 62.3% from 173 flights
- August 2024: 71.5% from 162 flights
- September 2024: 80.2% from 190 flights
- October 2024: 78.4% from 178 flights
- November 2024: 73.7% from 171 flights
- December 2024: 73.7% from 168 flights
- January 2025: 85.4% from 155 flights
- February 2025: 83.3% from 133 flights
- March 2025: 86.4% from 157 flights
- April 2025: 75.0% from 149 flights
- May 2025: 76.2% from 158 flights
- June 2025: 76.2% from 144 flights
- July 2025: 66.2% from 167 flights
- August 2025: 78.9% from 164 flights
- September 2025: 80.1% from 182 flights
- October 2025: 60.8% from 190 flights
- November 2025: 70.4% from 171 flights
- December 2025: 65.8% from 151 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (108)
- March 2026: 72.6% from 124 flights
- April 2026: 88.8% from 143 flights
- May 2026: 79.7% from 179 flights
- June 2026: 76.6% from 172 flights
- July 2026: 61.7% from 176 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.0% against 77.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,003 EWR → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed