Route profile
BNA→EWR
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Nashville to Newark, 748 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 11% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,006 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BNA → EWR arrives on time 77.4% of the time; the return trip, EWR → BNA, arrives on time 77.0% of the time.
BNA → EWR spends 27.1 minutes on the ground on a 748-mile trip: 17.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BNA and 9.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at EWR.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 100% of 5,368 comparable routes.
75.0% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 75.0% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BNA to EWR differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BNA to EWR struggles most at 5 PM: 57.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10.7 points behind the 68.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.9 points.
BNA to EWR is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 75.8% arrive on time, 8.7 points ahead of the 67.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.4 points.
February is kinder to BNA to EWR than to routes of similar length: 91.1% on time against 82.4%, 8.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
In October, BNA to EWR runs 4.7 points below routes of similar length, 78.4% on time to 83.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.6 points.
Republic Airways’ flights on BNA to EWR arrive on time 77.6% of the time, 4.7 points below the 82.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
BNA to EWR against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 57.9% | routes of similar length | 68.6% | −10.7 pts | 216 here, 120,700 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 75.8% | routes of similar length | 67.1% | +8.7 pts | 190 here, 101,666 there |
| Month: February | 91.1% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | +8.7 pts | 359 here, 145,329 there |
| Month: October | 78.4% | routes of similar length | 83.1% | −4.7 pts | 546 here, 179,599 there |
| Airline: Republic Airways | 77.6% | routes of similar length | 82.3% | −4.7 pts | 713 here, 126,235 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 748 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BNA → EWR flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BNA → EWR cancelled 184 of 6,006 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 33. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 63.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 52 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 184 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
116 cancellations, 63.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
38 cancellations, 20.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
30 cancellations, 16.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
184 coded cancellations were recorded on BNA → EWR; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
67 min late
against a median of 9 min early
BNA → EWR has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 9 min early, but the worst tenth are 76 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,006 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at EWR after arriving from BNA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.06% of the time and diverts 0.33% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,802 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 67 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,006 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BNA → EWR flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.1% of the time, against 63.5% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 24.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 92.1% on time from 567 flights
- 7 AM: 87.2% on time from 694 flights
- 8 AM: 84.9% on time from 482 flights
- 9 AM: 88.6% on time from 322 flights
- 10 AM: 84.0% on time from 441 flights
- 11 AM: 75.8% on time from 158 flights
- 12 PM: 82.0% on time from 258 flights
- 1 PM: 69.1% on time from 256 flights
- 2 PM: 73.1% on time from 609 flights
- 3 PM: 68.6% on time from 328 flights
- 4 PM: 60.8% on time from 158 flights
- 5 PM: 57.9% on time from 231 flights
- 6 PM: 64.5% on time from 298 flights
- 7 PM: 69.0% on time from 882 flights
- 8 PM: 75.8% on time from 208 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why BNA → EWR runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BNA → EWR. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 4,447 | 78.6% | 2.47% | -9 min | 10.3% |
| Spirit Airlines | 800 | 70.3% | 4.25% | -8 min | 16.7% |
| Republic Airways | 759 | 77.6% | 5.27% | -13 min | 9.7% |
United Airlines flew 74.0% of the 6,006 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 5.27% of its flights here against 2.47% for United Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 8.3 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Nashville to New York
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNA→LGA Nashville to New York | 12,776 | 78.1% | 2.91% | -6 min | 54 |
| BNA→EWR this route Nashville to Newark | 6,006 | 77.4% | 3.06% | -9 min | 47 |
BNA → LGA is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.1% on time, against 77.4% for BNA → EWR.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.3%
- Feb: 91.1%
- Mar: 83.0%
- Apr: 80.6%
- May: 71.2%
- Jun: 71.9%
- Jul: 64.5%
- Aug: 80.0%
- Sep: 79.6%
- Oct: 78.4%
- Nov: 78.9%
- Dec: 74.7%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 26.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 62.8% from 212 flights
- August 2023: 83.5% from 184 flights
- September 2023: 76.4% from 199 flights
- October 2023: 91.3% from 183 flights
- November 2023: 90.4% from 157 flights
- December 2023: 87.0% from 131 flights
- January 2024: 83.9% from 137 flights
- February 2024: 96.2% from 131 flights
- March 2024: 91.7% from 145 flights
- April 2024: 86.0% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 75.0% from 202 flights
- June 2024: 72.3% from 169 flights
- July 2024: 69.9% from 173 flights
- August 2024: 81.1% from 162 flights
- September 2024: 81.8% from 190 flights
- October 2024: 87.5% from 178 flights
- November 2024: 78.9% from 171 flights
- December 2024: 74.8% from 168 flights
- January 2025: 87.4% from 155 flights
- February 2025: 88.4% from 133 flights
- March 2025: 82.8% from 157 flights
- April 2025: 65.5% from 149 flights
- May 2025: 44.7% from 159 flights
- June 2025: 63.6% from 145 flights
- July 2025: 61.9% from 167 flights
- August 2025: 75.0% from 164 flights
- September 2025: 80.6% from 182 flights
- October 2025: 57.2% from 190 flights
- November 2025: 67.5% from 171 flights
- December 2025: 63.5% from 152 flights
- January 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (108)
- March 2026: 73.2% from 124 flights
- April 2026: 89.5% from 143 flights
- May 2026: 89.3% from 179 flights
- June 2026: 78.4% from 172 flights
- July 2026: 63.5% from 176 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.0% against 75.0% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,006 BNA → EWR flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed