DEN → SMF Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · DENNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Denver airport profile →

Destination · SMFNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Sacramento airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

64/ 100Good

Better than 45% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 12,300 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

74.5%

9,100 of 12,222

Cancellation rate

0.59%

73 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-2 min

Average 8.8 min

Severe delays

8.0%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

56 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

12,300

3 carriers

DEN → SMF arrives on time 74.5% of the time; the return trip, SMF → DEN, arrives on time 83.6% of the time, a 9.2-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

DEN → SMF spends 22.5 minutes on the ground on a 909-mile trip: 17.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DEN and 5.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 93% of 4,023 comparable routes.

90.9% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 58.9% for 9 PM–5 AM.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.

Why DEN → SMF flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

DEN → SMF cancelled 73 of 12,300 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 168. The reason filed most often was the airline, 57.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 293 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Airline57.5%

Weather31.5%

Air traffic11.0%

Security0.0%

Of 73 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

The airline1 in 293

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

42 cancellations, 57.5% of the total.

Extreme weather1 in 535

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

23 cancellations, 31.5% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 1,538

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

8 cancellations, 11.0% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

73 coded cancellations were recorded on DEN → SMF; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

48 min late

against a median of 2 min early

Arrived an hour or more late8.0%

Typical delay when late56 min

Cancelled0.59%

Landed somewhere else0.04%

Percentiles over 12,300 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at SMF after arriving from DEN.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, DEN → SMF arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	44%	Likely to miss
45 min	25%	High risk
60 min	16%	High risk
90 min	7.8%	Some risk
120 min	4.3%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.59% of the time and diverts 0.04% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 12,222 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 48 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 12,300 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

DEN → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.9% of the time, against 58.9% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 32.0 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (DEN).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 11.9 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.3 points.

On-time arrival rate for DEN to SMF by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 8 AM and after 10 PM (1,408 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for DEN to SMF. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
8 AM–9 AM	93.5% on time202 flights	90.5% on time202 flights	93.6% on time202 flights	91.9% on time198 flights	88.2% on time195 flights	87.6% on time194 flights	89.6% on time184 flights
9 AM–10 AM	106 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	59 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score	37 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	69 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	8 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	85.6% on time216 flights	81.1% on time197 flights	85.4% on time198 flights	80.5% on time205 flights	79.4% on time204 flights	77.8% on time195 flights	84.0% on time200 flights
12 PM–1 PM	35 flights, too few to score	36 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	31 flights, too few to score	35 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	20 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	79.7% on time158 flights	79.7% on time158 flights	81.7% on time154 flights	76.5% on time163 flights	74.1% on time162 flights	80.2% on time122 flights	78.1% on time148 flights
2 PM–3 PM	42 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	40 flights, too few to score	49 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	22 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	64.6% on time130 flights	84.4% on time141 flights	77.8% on time144 flights	70.1% on time130 flights	65.4% on time138 flights	107 flights, too few to score	74.8% on time133 flights
4 PM–5 PM	75.6% on time123 flights	82.4% on time136 flights	74.4% on time126 flights	117 flights, too few to score	71.7% on time121 flights	116 flights, too few to score	74.0% on time124 flights
5 PM–6 PM	31 flights, too few to score	44 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	32 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score	29 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	86 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score	36 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	75 flights, too few to score	32 flights, too few to score	47 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	68.7% on time183 flights	69.2% on time242 flights	67.5% on time245 flights	68.5% on time178 flights	70.2% on time183 flights	61.6% on time247 flights	68.9% on time185 flights
8 PM–9 PM	49.3% on time136 flights	105 flights, too few to score	69.5% on time153 flights	52.8% on time144 flights	61.0% on time143 flights	49 flights, too few to score	56.3% on time126 flights
9 PM–10 PM	61.5% on time145 flights	86 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	53.7% on time137 flights	58.1% on time139 flights	90 flights, too few to score	58.9% on time130 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM90.9%

9 AM–12 PM81.1%

12–3 PM74.3%

3–6 PM72.6%

6–9 PM62.0%

9 PM–5 AM58.9%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why DEN → SMF runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft54.4%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline34.1%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control9.9%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather1.5%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DEN → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DEN → SMF, at 54.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.9% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 58.9%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 4.0 times the normal rate at DEN against 1.6 times at SMF. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: DEN 2.8% against 0.7%, SMF 1.0% against 0.6%. Flights that did leave DEN in bad weather arrived on time 51.5% of the time, against 78.8% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from DEN and SMF in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	DEN	SMF
Cancelled in bad weather	2.8%	1.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.7%	0.6%
Arrived on time, bad weather	51.5%	83.0%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.8%	83.2%
Departures in bad weather	92,610	12,018

United Airlines (1.5% cancelled against 3.5% for the other carriers at DEN) and Southwest Airlines (2.4% cancelled against 3.1% for the other carriers at DEN) cancelled fewer departures from DEN in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DEN

All departures from DEN

Cancellation rates in bad weather at DEN for the airlines that fly DEN to SMF, against the other carriers at DEN in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	30,853	1.5%below the others	3.5%
Southwest Airlines	28,467	2.4%below the others	3.1%
Frontier Airlines	6,740	3.1%about level	2.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from DEN and SMF, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from DEN on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: DEN (airlines), SMF, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Southwest Airlines	6,042	68.2%	0.61%	2 min	8.8%
United Airlines	5,728	80.6%	0.59%	-7 min	7.1%
Frontier Airlines	528	79.2%	0.38%	-7 min	7.0%

Southwest Airlines flew 49.1% of the 12,298 flights listed.

United Airlines arrived on time 12.4 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
UA1208 United Airlines	4:00 PM	1,123	82.2%
UA1415 United Airlines	11:45 AM	1,097	82.2%
UA2132 United Airlines	7:15 PM	1,085	73.2%
UA2149 United Airlines	8:00 AM	985	91.9%

UA2149 (8:00 AM) arrived on time 91.9% of the time, 18.7 points more often than UA2132 (7:15 PM) at 73.2%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon74.4%

Tue78.0%

Wed77.9%

Thu71.3%

Fri72.9%

Sat73.5%

Sun73.5%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 6.7 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 21.4 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.8% against 75.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 1.9 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 12,300 DEN → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

DEN airport SMF airport Return direction SMF → DEN

DEN→SMF

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why DEN → SMF flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why DEN → SMF runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DEN

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology