Route profile
DEN→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Denver to Chicago, 895 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 35% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,032 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DEN → MDW arrives on time 74.6% of the time; the return trip, MDW → DEN, arrives on time 77.1% of the time, a 2.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DEN → MDW spends 20.9 minutes on the ground on an 895-mile trip: 15.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DEN and 5.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 94% of 4,023 comparable routes.
91.0% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 58.5% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DEN to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DEN to MDW struggles most at 5 PM: 50.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 17.7 points behind the 67.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 19.6 points.
DEN to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 90.4% arrive on time, 4 points ahead of the 86.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
Tuesday is the day DEN to MDW slips furthest against routes of similar length, 75.5% on time where they average 81.1%, 5.6 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
In June, DEN to MDW runs 8.8 points below routes of similar length, 62.8% on time to 71.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.9 points.
DEN to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 50.2% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | −17.7 pts | 631 here, 170,225 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 90.4% | routes of similar length | 86.4% | +4.0 pts | 573 here, 193,312 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 75.5% | routes of similar length | 81.1% | −5.6 pts | 1,237 here, 384,279 there |
| Month: June | 62.8% | routes of similar length | 71.6% | −8.8 pts | 803 here, 231,934 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 895 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DEN → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DEN → MDW cancelled 143 of 9,032 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 63. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 62.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 101 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 143 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
89 cancellations, 62.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
37 cancellations, 25.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
17 cancellations, 11.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
143 coded cancellations were recorded on DEN → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 9,032 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from DEN.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.58% of the time and diverts 0.44% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,849 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,032 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DEN → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.0% of the time, against 58.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 32.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 91.1% on time from 617 flights
- 6 AM: 92.7% on time from 536 flights
- 7 AM: 90.2% on time from 743 flights
- 8 AM: 90.4% on time from 586 flights
- 9 AM: 81.9% on time from 486 flights
- 10 AM: 86.0% on time from 432 flights
- 11 AM: 80.5% on time from 458 flights
- 12 PM: 80.9% on time from 382 flights
- 1 PM: 76.3% on time from 555 flights
- 2 PM: 67.3% on time from 475 flights
- 3 PM: 71.1% on time from 431 flights
- 4 PM: 71.6% on time from 493 flights
- 5 PM: 50.2% on time from 648 flights
- 6 PM: 58.8% on time from 646 flights
- 7 PM: 56.0% on time from 430 flights
- 8 PM: 60.1% on time from 586 flights
- 9 PM: 61.4% on time from 465 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DEN → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DEN → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DEN → MDW, at 50.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 58.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8,087 | 74.8% | 1.56% | -2 min | 7.2% |
| Frontier Airlines | 945 | 72.9% | 1.80% | -4 min | 10.1% |
Southwest Airlines flew 89.5% of the 9,032 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Other ways to fly Denver to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN→ORD Denver to Chicago | 19,475 | 74.2% | 1.02% | -3 min | 56 |
| DEN→MDW this route Denver to Chicago | 9,032 | 74.6% | 1.58% | -2 min | 60 |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 75.0%
- Feb: 77.5%
- Mar: 76.8%
- Apr: 76.6%
- May: 68.6%
- Jun: 62.8%
- Jul: 68.0%
- Aug: 71.3%
- Sep: 82.4%
- Oct: 81.2%
- Nov: 83.2%
- Dec: 77.7%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 20.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 64.0% from 366 flights
- August 2023: 73.0% from 382 flights
- September 2023: 81.6% from 316 flights
- October 2023: 76.3% from 305 flights
- November 2023: 82.7% from 284 flights
- December 2023: 73.8% from 296 flights
- January 2024: 64.2% from 245 flights
- February 2024: 76.4% from 212 flights
- March 2024: 75.5% from 274 flights
- April 2024: 75.4% from 276 flights
- May 2024: 66.9% from 286 flights
- June 2024: 67.5% from 338 flights
- July 2024: 72.8% from 350 flights
- August 2024: 73.8% from 285 flights
- September 2024: 86.0% from 265 flights
- October 2024: 84.7% from 270 flights
- November 2024: 82.6% from 240 flights
- December 2024: 87.3% from 245 flights
- January 2025: 78.5% from 214 flights
- February 2025: 78.3% from 192 flights
- March 2025: 83.8% from 213 flights
- April 2025: 78.7% from 193 flights
- May 2025: 65.6% from 187 flights
- June 2025: 58.1% from 274 flights
- July 2025: 65.4% from 299 flights
- August 2025: 65.3% from 224 flights
- September 2025: 78.8% from 203 flights
- October 2025: 83.6% from 214 flights
- November 2025: 84.9% from 187 flights
- December 2025: 71.4% from 195 flights
- January 2026: 85.9% from 156 flights
- February 2026: 78.1% from 138 flights
- March 2026: 69.8% from 171 flights
- April 2026: 76.1% from 161 flights
- May 2026: 75.2% from 163 flights
- June 2026: 61.2% from 201 flights
- July 2026: 70.2% from 212 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.7% against 76.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 1.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,032 DEN → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed