Route profile
MDW→DEN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Denver, 895 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 42% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,107 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MDW → DEN arrives on time 77.1% of the time; the return trip, DEN → MDW, arrives on time 74.6% of the time, a 2.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → DEN spends 21.9 minutes on the ground on an 895-mile trip: 14.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 7.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at DEN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to DEN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to DEN is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 1 PM: 86.0% arrive on time, 9.1 points ahead of the 76.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.9 points.
MDW to DEN struggles most at 6 PM: 59.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.9 points behind the 67.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
Tuesday is the day MDW to DEN slips furthest against routes of similar length, 78.5% on time where they average 81.1%, 2.6 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 3.1 points.
November is kinder to MDW to DEN than to routes of similar length: 88.6% on time against 83.5%, 5.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.2 points.
In June, MDW to DEN runs 4.9 points below routes of similar length, 66.7% on time to 71.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
MDW to DEN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 86.0% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | +9.1 pts | 344 here, 167,240 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 59.0% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | −8.9 pts | 402 here, 180,385 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 78.5% | routes of similar length | 81.1% | −2.6 pts | 1,249 here, 384,267 there |
| Month: November | 88.6% | routes of similar length | 83.5% | +5.1 pts | 696 here, 228,447 there |
| Month: June | 66.7% | routes of similar length | 71.6% | −4.9 pts | 824 here, 231,913 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 895 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → DEN flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → DEN cancelled 129 of 9,107 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 71. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 66.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 106 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 129 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
86 cancellations, 66.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
31 cancellations, 24.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
12 cancellations, 9.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
129 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → DEN; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 9,107 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DEN after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.42% of the time and diverts 0.25% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,955 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,107 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → DEN flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.8% of the time, against 62.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 27.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.1% on time from 691 flights
- 6 AM: 90.3% on time from 580 flights
- 7 AM: 88.1% on time from 595 flights
- 8 AM: 86.0% on time from 603 flights
- 9 AM: 83.9% on time from 624 flights
- 10 AM: 85.0% on time from 417 flights
- 11 AM: 84.0% on time from 573 flights
- 12 PM: 83.5% on time from 497 flights
- 1 PM: 86.0% on time from 346 flights
- 2 PM: 69.7% on time from 470 flights
- 3 PM: 67.4% on time from 421 flights
- 4 PM: 63.8% on time from 539 flights
- 5 PM: 63.5% on time from 573 flights
- 6 PM: 59.0% on time from 414 flights
- 7 PM: 68.6% on time from 367 flights
- 8 PM: 69.4% on time from 500 flights
- 9 PM: 60.5% on time from 426 flights
- 10 PM: 66.2% on time from 440 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → DEN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → DEN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → DEN, at 45.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.8% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 62.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8,160 | 77.4% | 1.27% | -5 min | 7.5% |
| Frontier Airlines | 947 | 73.9% | 2.64% | -8 min | 10.0% |
Southwest Airlines flew 89.6% of the 9,107 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.64% of its flights here against 1.27% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 3.5 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Denver
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→DEN Chicago to Denver | 19,502 | 77.0% | 1.17% | -6 min | 61 |
| MDW→DEN this route Chicago to Denver | 9,107 | 77.1% | 1.42% | -5 min | 63 |
Flying to DEN from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for DEN, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 7.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.8%
- Feb: 81.1%
- Mar: 78.2%
- Apr: 78.7%
- May: 71.3%
- Jun: 66.7%
- Jul: 65.9%
- Aug: 73.5%
- Sep: 84.8%
- Oct: 85.3%
- Nov: 88.6%
- Dec: 80.7%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 22.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 52.2% from 362 flights
- August 2023: 70.5% from 367 flights
- September 2023: 78.5% from 315 flights
- October 2023: 82.3% from 305 flights
- November 2023: 89.5% from 286 flights
- December 2023: 91.6% from 296 flights
- January 2024: 77.5% from 255 flights
- February 2024: 83.3% from 222 flights
- March 2024: 81.5% from 266 flights
- April 2024: 83.6% from 268 flights
- May 2024: 69.8% from 276 flights
- June 2024: 69.5% from 338 flights
- July 2024: 77.8% from 349 flights
- August 2024: 77.0% from 284 flights
- September 2024: 92.0% from 265 flights
- October 2024: 91.9% from 272 flights
- November 2024: 92.7% from 239 flights
- December 2024: 85.7% from 246 flights
- January 2025: 81.5% from 216 flights
- February 2025: 80.7% from 189 flights
- March 2025: 83.3% from 217 flights
- April 2025: 76.8% from 215 flights
- May 2025: 69.2% from 212 flights
- June 2025: 65.5% from 277 flights
- July 2025: 61.7% from 299 flights
- August 2025: 73.9% from 226 flights
- September 2025: 85.1% from 202 flights
- October 2025: 81.1% from 213 flights
- November 2025: 81.9% from 188 flights
- December 2025: 58.5% from 197 flights
- January 2026: 81.0% from 158 flights
- February 2026: 78.3% from 139 flights
- March 2026: 66.5% from 169 flights
- April 2026: 73.0% from 161 flights
- May 2026: 76.5% from 163 flights
- June 2026: 64.2% from 220 flights
- July 2026: 74.4% from 235 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.3% against 79.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,107 MDW → DEN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed