Route profile
BUF→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Buffalo to New York, 301 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 11% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,256 flights. How this is calculated
BUF → JFK arrives on time 79.0% of the time; the return trip, JFK → BUF, arrives on time 74.0% of the time, a 5.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
BUF → JFK spends 25.6 minutes on the ground on a 301-mile trip: 15.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BUF and 10.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where BUF to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BUF to JFK struggles most at 5 PM: 56.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 14.7 points behind the 71.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.2 points.
BUF to JFK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 80.0% arrive on time, 9.6 points ahead of the 70.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.4 points.
Saturday is the day BUF to JFK slips furthest against routes of similar length, 77.5% on time where they average 81.9%, 4.4 points lower.
In January, BUF to JFK runs 14.8 points below routes of similar length, 66.6% on time to 81.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 12.5 points.
May is kinder to BUF to JFK than to routes of similar length: 82.5% on time against 76.9%, 5.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.3 points.
BUF to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 56.6% | routes of similar length | 71.3% | −14.7 pts | 145 here, 60,465 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 70.4% | +9.6 pts | 205 here, 59,908 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 77.5% | routes of similar length | 81.9% | −4.4 pts | 876 here, 112,188 there |
| Month: January | 66.6% | routes of similar length | 81.4% | −14.8 pts | 314 here, 68,796 there |
| Month: May | 82.5% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | +5.6 pts | 469 here, 81,553 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 301 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BUF → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BUF → JFK cancelled 239 of 6,256 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 26. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 48.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 54 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 239 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
115 cancellations, 48.1% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
98 cancellations, 41.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
26 cancellations, 10.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
239 coded cancellations were recorded on BUF → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
56 min late
against a median of 9 min early
BUF → JFK has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 9 min early, but the worst tenth are 65 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,256 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from BUF.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.2% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.82% of the time and diverts 0.13% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,009 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 56 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,256 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BUF → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.2% of the time, against 68.0% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 19.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 90.5% on time from 616 flights
- 6 AM: 86.9% on time from 519 flights
- 7 AM: 85.8% on time from 567 flights
- 8 AM: 83.6% on time from 294 flights
- 9 AM: 84.2% on time from 419 flights
- 10 AM: 85.3% on time from 370 flights
- 11 AM: 74.0% on time from 653 flights
- 12 PM: 78.6% on time from 295 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 85.1% on time from 322 flights
- 3 PM: 72.6% on time from 471 flights
- 4 PM: 66.0% on time from 224 flights
- 5 PM: 56.6% on time from 158 flights
- 6 PM: 80.0% on time from 215 flights
- 7 PM: 70.2% on time from 775 flights
- 8 PM: 65.7% on time from 321 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why BUF → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BUF → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BUF → JFK, at 41.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 87.2% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 68.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JetBlue | 4,135 | 76.7% | 3.82% | -8 min | 10.8% |
| Endeavor Air | 1,344 | 83.4% | 3.57% | -14 min | 6.9% |
| Republic Airways | 455 | 80.8% | 4.84% | -6 min | 8.3% |
JetBlue flew 69.7% of the 5,934 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.84% of its flights here against 3.57% for Endeavor Air.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 6.7 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 66.6%
- Feb: 78.9%
- Mar: 83.9%
- Apr: 84.2%
- May: 82.5%
- Jun: 76.4%
- Jul: 69.3%
- Aug: 77.1%
- Sep: 80.5%
- Oct: 86.7%
- Nov: 86.2%
- Dec: 72.5%
January is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 20.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.0% from 238 flights
- August 2023: 80.0% from 240 flights
- September 2023: 69.5% from 263 flights
- October 2023: 84.5% from 259 flights
- November 2023: 88.7% from 247 flights
- December 2023: 87.5% from 194 flights
- January 2024: 67.9% from 201 flights
- February 2024: 86.3% from 216 flights
- March 2024: 85.5% from 244 flights
- April 2024: 83.1% from 236 flights
- May 2024: 82.9% from 247 flights
- June 2024: 77.8% from 240 flights
- July 2024: 69.6% from 248 flights
- August 2024: 71.3% from 248 flights
- September 2024: 87.3% from 267 flights
- October 2024: 88.9% from 271 flights
- November 2024: 89.1% from 221 flights
- December 2024: 65.7% from 218 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (95)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- May 2025: 75.2% from 121 flights
- June 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- July 2025: 80.6% from 124 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- September 2025: 88.1% from 120 flights
- October 2025: 86.5% from 136 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (103)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (62)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (81)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (74)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (62)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (104)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- July 2026: 57.0% from 124 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.7% against 78.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,256 BUF → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed