Route profile
JFK→BUF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Buffalo, 301 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 5% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,256 flights. How this is calculated
JFK → BUF arrives on time 74.0% of the time; the return trip, BUF → JFK, arrives on time 79.0% of the time, a 5.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
JFK → BUF spends 32.3 minutes on the ground on a 301-mile trip: 26.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 5.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at BUF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 92% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth run 73 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to BUF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to BUF struggles most at 2 PM: 56.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 20.2 points behind the 77.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.7 points.
JFK to BUF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 86.3% arrive on time, 5.7 points ahead of the 80.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
Saturday is the day JFK to BUF slips furthest against routes of similar length, 71.7% on time where they average 82.0%, 10.3 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
In August, JFK to BUF runs 12 points below routes of similar length, 67.0% on time to 79.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.5 points.
JetBlue’s flights on JFK to BUF arrive on time 69.8% of the time, 4.8 points below the 74.6% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.4 points.
JFK to BUF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 56.9% | routes of similar length | 77.1% | −20.2 pts | 188 here, 52,793 there |
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 86.3% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | +5.7 pts | 422 here, 51,126 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 71.7% | routes of similar length | 82.0% | −10.3 pts | 868 here, 112,196 there |
| Month: August | 67.0% | routes of similar length | 79.0% | −12.0 pts | 572 here, 79,704 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 69.8% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | −4.8 pts | 3,983 here, 13,845 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 301 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → BUF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → BUF cancelled 231 of 6,256 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 27. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 51.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 52 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 231 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
120 cancellations, 51.9% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
88 cancellations, 38.1% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
23 cancellations, 10.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
231 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → BUF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
67 min late
against a median of 6 min early
JFK → BUF has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 73 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,256 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BUF after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 19% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.8% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.69% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,021 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 67 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,256 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → BUF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.7% of the time, against 60.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 27.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 85.0% on time from 313 flights
- 7 AM: 90.3% on time from 419 flights
- 8 AM: 86.6% on time from 298 flights
- 9 AM: 75.0% on time from 627 flights
- 10 AM: 85.7% on time from 240 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 86.3% on time from 434 flights
- 1 PM: 77.3% on time from 527 flights
- 2 PM: 56.9% on time from 194 flights
- 3 PM: 74.1% on time from 187 flights
- 4 PM: 67.9% on time from 163 flights
- 5 PM: 70.7% on time from 885 flights
- 6 PM: 59.3% on time from 184 flights
- 7 PM: 57.5% on time from 161 flights
- 8 PM: 62.4% on time from 350 flights
- 9 PM: 57.8% on time from 358 flights
- 10 PM: 70.9% on time from 864 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why JFK → BUF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → BUF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JetBlue | 4,135 | 69.8% | 3.63% | -4 min | 13.9% |
| Endeavor Air | 1,344 | 84.3% | 3.35% | -11 min | 4.4% |
| Republic Airways | 456 | 79.7% | 5.92% | -8 min | 9.1% |
JetBlue flew 69.7% of the 5,935 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 5.92% of its flights here against 3.35% for Endeavor Air.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 14.5 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
B61602 (7:30 AM) arrived on time 79.7% of the time, 20.5 points more often than B6102 (10:15 PM) at 59.2%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 71.9%
- Feb: 74.8%
- Mar: 78.3%
- Apr: 82.8%
- May: 81.3%
- Jun: 66.8%
- Jul: 60.7%
- Aug: 67.0%
- Sep: 76.9%
- Oct: 80.1%
- Nov: 81.4%
- Dec: 69.4%
July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 22.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 63.5% from 238 flights
- August 2023: 70.3% from 240 flights
- September 2023: 68.8% from 263 flights
- October 2023: 76.0% from 259 flights
- November 2023: 82.6% from 247 flights
- December 2023: 75.4% from 193 flights
- January 2024: 69.0% from 201 flights
- February 2024: 81.2% from 216 flights
- March 2024: 82.2% from 243 flights
- April 2024: 83.5% from 236 flights
- May 2024: 80.5% from 248 flights
- June 2024: 64.0% from 240 flights
- July 2024: 57.0% from 248 flights
- August 2024: 58.8% from 248 flights
- September 2024: 82.8% from 267 flights
- October 2024: 84.9% from 271 flights
- November 2024: 87.3% from 221 flights
- December 2024: 67.9% from 219 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (96)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (96)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (93)
- May 2025: 76.9% from 121 flights
- June 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- July 2025: 66.7% from 124 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- September 2025: 80.7% from 120 flights
- October 2025: 78.4% from 136 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (103)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (62)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (81)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (74)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (62)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (104)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- July 2026: 57.0% from 124 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.8% against 74.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,256 JFK → BUF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed