Flight profile · Alaska Airlines
AS451
New Orleans (MSY) to Seattle (SEA) · scheduled 7:00 AM – 10:20 AM
How AS451 performs
972 operations, September 2023 – July 2026.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 972 operations, September 2023 – July 2026 · If AS451 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
Where AS451 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
Ask for the position of AS451 right now, if receivers on the ground are hearing it. Nothing is requested until you press the button.
Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS451 | 76.5% | 0.72% | -2 min | 4.5% | 972 |
| Alaska Airlines on MSY → SEA | 75.8% | 0.82% | -2 min | 5.6% | 2,071 |
| All MSY → SEA flights | 75.7% | 0.82% | -2 min | 5.7% | 2,084 |
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · September 2023 – July 2026
Why AS451 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
screening or terminal security incidents
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for AS451 on MSY → SEA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering September 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies AS451 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
When the aircraft came in 15 or more minutes late, AS451 pushed back an average of 44 minutes late; when it came in on time or early, an average of 3 minutes late.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into MSY just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 899 of 965 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late | Left 15+ late after a late inbound | Left 15+ late after an on-time inbound |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS451 | 18% | 71% | 10% |
| Network, same turn | 17% | 68% | 9% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 60 to 89 minutes. How often AS451’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is about the same as the network’s and, once the aircraft was late, how often AS451 left 15 or more minutes late is about the same as the network’s.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering September 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves MSY late, does that still matter by the time it reaches SEA?
AS451 pushes back an average of 10.7 minutes late and reaches the gate at SEA an average of 6.5 minutes late. The 4.1 minutes between those two figures are slack the published schedule already carries, which is why a late pushback on this flight does not reliably become a late arrival. It spends 16.7 minutes on the taxiways at MSY, 2.6 minutes longer than a typical MSY departure in the same hour.
On arrival at SEA, AS451 spends 13.6 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is 1.7 minutes longer than a typical SEA arrival (11.9 min).
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached SEA. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 11,886 departures from MSY scheduled in the clock hour AS451 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at SEA (510,187 flights), not just AS451’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · September 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves MSY
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. AS451 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 11,886 departures from MSY are scheduled in the 7 AM–8 AM hour over the period, against 154,321 across the whole day.
AS451 is scheduled out of MSY at 7:00 AM, in the 7 AM–8 AM bank. Departures from MSY in that hour arrive on time 87.8% of the time against 78.7% across the airport’s whole day — the slot alone is worth 9.1 points better before anything about this particular flight is considered.
The two airport figures cover every departure from MSY to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · September 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
By day of week
Does AS451 run worse on particular days?
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 10.9 percentage points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · September 2023 – July 2026 · Days with fewer than 120 operations are not scored.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
35 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 972 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering September 2023 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS451 this flight | Alaska Airlines | 76.5% | 2 min early | 972 |
| AS569 | Alaska Airlines | 75.0% | 2 min early | 1,025 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. AS451 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 972 records of AS451 operating MSY → SEA, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
Analysis last recomputed