Route profile
TUS→SEA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tucson to Seattle, 1,216 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 89% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,279 flights. How this is calculated
TUS → SEA arrives on time 83.6% of the time; the return trip, SEA → TUS, arrives on time 80.8% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
TUS → SEA spends 27.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,216-mile trip: 16.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TUS and 11.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at SEA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 95% of 4,467 comparable routes.
85.7% on time on the best day (Saturday) against 81.5% on the worst (Tuesday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TUS to SEA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TUS to SEA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 88.1% arrive on time, 10.2 points ahead of the 77.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.7 points.
TUS to SEA holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 83.0% on time to their 73.5%, a 9.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.2 points.
July is kinder to TUS to SEA than to routes of similar length: 82.7% on time against 68.9%, 13.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 13 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on TUS to SEA than on its routes of similar length: 86.5% on time here, 80.9% there, 5.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
TUS to SEA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 88.1% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | +10.2 pts | 337 here, 128,522 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 83.0% | routes of similar length | 73.5% | +9.5 pts | 481 here, 291,108 there |
| Month: July | 82.7% | routes of similar length | 68.9% | +13.8 pts | 370 here, 213,862 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 86.5% | routes of similar length | 80.9% | +5.6 pts | 650 here, 362,458 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,216 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
26 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 3,279 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SEA after arriving from TUS.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 15% | High risk |
| 60 min | 8.3% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.1% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.52% of the time and diverts 0.09% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,259 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 26 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,279 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TUS → SEA flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 87.8% of the time, against 73.7% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 14.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.3% on time from 224 flights
- 7 AM: 88.3% on time from 542 flights
- 8 AM: 82.3% on time from 289 flights
- 9 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 87.6% on time from 169 flights
- 12 PM: 88.1% on time from 338 flights
- 1 PM: 84.5% on time from 594 flights
- 2 PM: 82.2% on time from 349 flights
- 3 PM: 72.8% on time from 440 flights
- 4 PM: 75.1% on time from 264 flights
- 5 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TUS → SEA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TUS → SEA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 1,606 | 82.1% | 0.56% | -3 min | 3.6% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1,016 | 84.2% | 0.20% | -6 min | 3.9% |
| Delta Air Lines | 657 | 86.5% | 0.91% | -14 min | 6.0% |
Alaska Airlines flew 49.0% of the 3,279 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 4.4 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS641 Alaska Airlines | 3:33 PM | 1,025 | 76.9% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Tuesday the least, a gap of 4.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.5%
- Feb: 89.3%
- Mar: 87.5%
- Apr: 87.7%
- May: 81.7%
- Jun: 74.7%
- Jul: 82.7%
- Aug: 79.1%
- Sep: 86.3%
- Oct: 86.5%
- Nov: 83.3%
- Dec: 81.7%
June is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 14.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 86.1% against 83.9% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,279 TUS → SEA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed