Route profile
SEA→TUS
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Seattle to Tucson, 1,216 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 88% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,280 flights. How this is calculated
SEA → TUS arrives on time 80.8% of the time; the return trip, TUS → SEA, arrives on time 83.6% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SEA → TUS spends 27.0 minutes on the ground on a 1,216-mile trip: 22.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SEA and 4.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at TUS.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where SEA to TUS differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SEA to TUS is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 79.8% arrive on time, 14.1 points ahead of the 65.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12 points.
SEA to TUS struggles most at 11 AM: 72.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7 points behind the 79.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.7 points.
SEA to TUS holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 81.8% on time to their 75.9%, a 5.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
July is kinder to SEA to TUS than to routes of similar length: 82.5% on time against 68.9%, 13.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 12.8 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on SEA to TUS than on its routes of similar length: 86.1% on time here, 80.9% there, 5.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4.6 points.
SEA to TUS against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 79.8% | routes of similar length | 65.7% | +14.1 pts | 381 here, 117,171 there |
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 72.3% | routes of similar length | 79.3% | −7.0 pts | 528 here, 117,954 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 81.8% | routes of similar length | 75.9% | +5.9 pts | 478 here, 292,084 there |
| Month: July | 82.5% | routes of similar length | 68.9% | +13.6 pts | 371 here, 213,861 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 86.1% | routes of similar length | 80.9% | +5.2 pts | 653 here, 362,455 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,216 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
30 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 3,280 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TUS after arriving from SEA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 40% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.34% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,267 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 30 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,280 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SEA → TUS flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.3% of the time, against 74.2% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 15.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 91.3% on time from 412 flights
- 9 AM: 88.1% on time from 853 flights
- 10 AM: 82.6% on time from 271 flights
- 11 AM: 72.3% on time from 531 flights
- 12 PM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 77.3% on time from 211 flights
- 6 PM: 65.4% on time from 310 flights
- 7 PM: 79.8% on time from 384 flights
- 8 PM: 79.2% on time from 126 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why SEA → TUS runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SEA → TUS. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 1,606 | 78.4% | 0.37% | -2 min | 3.1% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1,017 | 81.1% | 0.20% | -2 min | 3.8% |
| Delta Air Lines | 657 | 86.1% | 0.46% | -11 min | 5.4% |
Alaska Airlines flew 49.0% of the 3,280 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 7.7 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS648 Alaska Airlines | 8:00 AM | 1,067 | 78.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.8%
- Feb: 82.9%
- Mar: 79.2%
- Apr: 85.9%
- May: 85.6%
- Jun: 81.5%
- Jul: 82.5%
- Aug: 74.1%
- Sep: 81.1%
- Oct: 80.2%
- Nov: 78.3%
- Dec: 80.5%
August is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 11.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.7% against 79.1% in the 12 months before — improving by 3.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,280 SEA → TUS flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed