Route profile
TPA→SJU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to San Juan, 1,237 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 34% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 4,817 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TPA → SJU arrives on time 76.3% of the time; the return trip, SJU → TPA, arrives on time 76.4% of the time.
TPA → SJU spends 20.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,237-mile trip: 14.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 6.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at SJU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 92% of 4,023 comparable routes.
92.2% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 61.0% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to SJU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to SJU struggles most at 9 PM: 59.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.4 points behind the 65.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.5 points.
TPA to SJU is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 AM: 94.0% arrive on time, 5.8 points ahead of the 88.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
In October, TPA to SJU runs 7.6 points below routes of similar length, 75.0% on time to 82.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
September is kinder to TPA to SJU than to routes of similar length: 87.2% on time against 81.6%, 5.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
JetBlue does better on TPA to SJU than on its routes of similar length: 80.8% on time here, 69.7% there, 11.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
TPA to SJU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 59.0% | routes of similar length | 65.4% | −6.4 pts | 300 here, 44,481 there |
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 94.0% | routes of similar length | 88.2% | +5.8 pts | 417 here, 163,082 there |
| Month: October | 75.0% | routes of similar length | 82.6% | −7.6 pts | 280 here, 155,399 there |
| Month: September | 87.2% | routes of similar length | 81.6% | +5.6 pts | 274 here, 142,642 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 80.8% | routes of similar length | 69.7% | +11.1 pts | 1,784 here, 115,626 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,237 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → SJU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → SJU cancelled 69 of 4,817 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 70. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 58.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 120 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 69 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
40 cancellations, 58.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
21 cancellations, 30.4% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
8 cancellations, 11.6% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
69 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → SJU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
50 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 4,817 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SJU after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.43% of the time and diverts 0.10% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 4,743 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 50 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 4,817 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → SJU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.2% of the time, against 61.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 31.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.7% on time from 200 flights
- 6 AM: 92.8% on time from 753 flights
- 7 AM: 94.0% on time from 433 flights
- 8 AM: 81.5% on time from 129 flights
- 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 83.5% on time from 165 flights
- 11 AM: 77.3% on time from 281 flights
- 12 PM: 76.8% on time from 322 flights
- 1 PM: 70.0% on time from 344 flights
- 2 PM: 69.1% on time from 233 flights
- 3 PM: 72.4% on time from 275 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 65.1% on time from 153 flights
- 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 70.9% on time from 159 flights
- 8 PM: 60.5% on time from 580 flights
- 9 PM: 59.0% on time from 306 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TPA → SJU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → SJU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → SJU, at 54.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.2% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 61.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JetBlue | 1,814 | 80.8% | 1.54% | -5 min | 7.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,460 | 72.7% | 0.62% | 2 min | 8.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 1,257 | 75.4% | 1.59% | -6 min | 9.5% |
| Spirit Airlines | 286 | 70.4% | 4.20% | -5 min | 12.8% |
JetBlue flew 37.7% of the 4,817 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 4.20% of its flights here against 0.62% for Southwest Airlines.
JetBlue arrived on time 10.4 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.8%
- Feb: 81.3%
- Mar: 75.6%
- Apr: 80.2%
- May: 76.8%
- Jun: 74.5%
- Jul: 64.1%
- Aug: 69.8%
- Sep: 87.2%
- Oct: 75.0%
- Nov: 83.8%
- Dec: 78.8%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 23.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 51.5% from 172 flights
- August 2023: 65.2% from 154 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (103)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (107)
- November 2023: 87.8% from 131 flights
- December 2023: 84.1% from 164 flights
- January 2024: 81.0% from 126 flights
- February 2024: too few flights to score (109)
- March 2024: 78.9% from 144 flights
- April 2024: 85.2% from 124 flights
- May 2024: 80.8% from 130 flights
- June 2024: 73.9% from 166 flights
- July 2024: 71.3% from 171 flights
- August 2024: 77.6% from 129 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (97)
- November 2024: 87.2% from 125 flights
- December 2024: 76.6% from 142 flights
- January 2025: 79.7% from 124 flights
- February 2025: 71.3% from 123 flights
- March 2025: 77.6% from 145 flights
- April 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- May 2025: 83.2% from 125 flights
- June 2025: 74.8% from 139 flights
- July 2025: 70.1% from 145 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (83)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (88)
- November 2025: 76.4% from 128 flights
- December 2025: 74.8% from 142 flights
- January 2026: 84.7% from 132 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (89)
- March 2026: 70.3% from 150 flights
- April 2026: 76.2% from 124 flights
- May 2026: too few flights to score (116)
- June 2026: 74.7% from 167 flights
- July 2026: 64.3% from 186 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.0% against 79.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 4,817 TPA → SJU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed