Route profile
TPA→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Raleigh–Durham, 587 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 63% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,977 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TPA → RDU arrives on time 82.3% of the time; the return trip, RDU → TPA, arrives on time 80.5% of the time.
TPA → RDU spends 21.5 minutes on the ground on a 587-mile trip: 15.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 6.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 95% of 5,368 comparable routes.
81.8% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 82.1% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to RDU is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 PM: 80.2% arrive on time, 12.4 points ahead of the 67.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.7 points.
TPA to RDU holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 83.3% on time to their 76.6%, a 6.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
June is kinder to TPA to RDU than to routes of similar length: 82.0% on time against 73.2%, 8.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.3 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on TPA to RDU than on its routes of similar length: 81.9% on time here, 77.8% there, 4.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
TPA to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 80.2% | routes of similar length | 67.8% | +12.4 pts | 258 here, 66,242 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 83.3% | routes of similar length | 76.6% | +6.7 pts | 609 here, 291,925 there |
| Month: June | 82.0% | routes of similar length | 73.2% | +8.8 pts | 338 here, 159,925 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 81.9% | routes of similar length | 77.8% | +4.1 pts | 1,256 here, 470,223 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 587 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → RDU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → RDU cancelled 63 of 3,977 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 63. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 63.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 99 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 63 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
40 cancellations, 63.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
19 cancellations, 30.2% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
4 cancellations, 6.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
63 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → RDU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
34 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 3,977 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 30% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.58% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,905 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 34 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,977 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → RDU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.6% of the time, against 74.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 19.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 89.9% on time from 149 flights
- 9 AM: 89.5% on time from 1,109 flights
- 10 AM: 82.7% on time from 373 flights
- 11 AM: 81.5% on time from 166 flights
- 12 PM: 76.3% on time from 132 flights
- 1 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 74.4% on time from 349 flights
- 4 PM: 82.5% on time from 171 flights
- 5 PM to 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 76.0% on time from 574 flights
- 9 PM: 80.2% on time from 265 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TPA → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → RDU, at 56.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 74.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,976 | 84.3% | 1.82% | -12 min | 6.9% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,270 | 81.9% | 0.94% | -5 min | 4.5% |
| Frontier Airlines | 603 | 75.0% | 1.99% | -6 min | 8.8% |
Delta Air Lines flew 51.3% of the 3,849 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 1.99% of its flights here against 0.94% for Southwest Airlines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 9.3 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.2%
- Feb: 78.7%
- Mar: 74.9%
- Apr: 87.0%
- May: 82.9%
- Jun: 82.0%
- Jul: 73.9%
- Aug: 83.2%
- Sep: 91.0%
- Oct: 90.7%
- Nov: 86.4%
- Dec: 80.2%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 17.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 79.7% from 125 flights
- August 2023: 87.0% from 126 flights
- September 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (111)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2023: 85.5% from 124 flights
- January 2024: too few flights to score (81)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (70)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (85)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- June 2024: 82.5% from 121 flights
- July 2024: 68.1% from 122 flights
- August 2024: 82.5% from 121 flights
- September 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (113)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (115)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (82)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (101)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (105)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (100)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (109)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (114)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (119)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 81.8% against 82.1% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,977 TPA → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed