Route profile
TPA→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Minneapolis, 1,306 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 68% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,697 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TPA → MSP arrives on time 83.1% of the time; the return trip, MSP → TPA, arrives on time 83.7% of the time.
TPA → MSP spends 23.0 minutes on the ground on a 1,306-mile trip: 15.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 7.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 95% of 5,368 comparable routes.
82.0% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 81.7% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 78.8% arrive on time, 10 points ahead of the 68.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.3 points.
TPA to MSP holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 84.1% on time to their 76.1%, a 8 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
January is kinder to TPA to MSP than to routes of similar length: 88.7% on time against 78.0%, 10.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
TPA to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 78.8% | routes of similar length | 68.8% | +10.0 pts | 972 here, 111,312 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 84.1% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | +8.0 pts | 534 here, 252,757 there |
| Month: January | 88.7% | routes of similar length | 78.0% | +10.7 pts | 292 here, 126,675 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,306 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
33 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,697 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.30% of the time and diverts 0.14% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,644 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 33 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,697 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.1% of the time, against 72.0% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 19.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 91.2% on time from 1,024 flights
- 8 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 83.5% on time from 895 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 82.7% on time from 175 flights
- 3 PM: 71.3% on time from 399 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 78.8% on time from 990 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why TPA → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → MSP, at 36.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.1% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 72.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,670 | 83.2% | 1.28% | -7 min | 5.9% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2263 Delta Air Lines | 7:00 AM | 780 | 89.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 88.7%
- Feb: 83.5%
- Mar: 75.8%
- Apr: 84.9%
- May: 80.3%
- Jun: 77.1%
- Jul: 77.0%
- Aug: 83.1%
- Sep: 88.0%
- Oct: 92.9%
- Nov: 91.6%
- Dec: 82.1%
March is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (88)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (85)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (101)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (102)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- March 2024: 71.4% from 120 flights
- April 2024: 88.4% from 121 flights
- May 2024: 78.5% from 122 flights
- June 2024: too few flights to score (96)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (86)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (84)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (95)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (86)
- March 2025: 76.6% from 124 flights
- April 2025: 75.6% from 124 flights
- May 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (91)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (72)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (80)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (81)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (98)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (95)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (84)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- April 2026: 90.8% from 120 flights
- May 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (110)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (112)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.0% against 81.7% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,697 TPA → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed