Route profile
TPA→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Washington, 814 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 16% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,650 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TPA → DCA arrives on time 75.3% of the time; the return trip, DCA → TPA, arrives on time 76.1% of the time.
TPA → DCA spends 22.1 minutes on the ground on an 814-mile trip: 16.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 5.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to DCA struggles most at 6 PM: 59.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.2 points behind the 67.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9 points.
TPA to DCA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 AM: 88.6% arrive on time, 3.5 points ahead of the 85.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.3 points.
Sunday is the day TPA to DCA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 68.8% on time where they average 74.6%, 5.8 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
In February, TPA to DCA runs 10.9 points below routes of similar length, 71.5% on time to 82.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 10 points.
TPA to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 59.6% | routes of similar length | 67.8% | −8.2 pts | 646 here, 151,975 there |
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 88.6% | routes of similar length | 85.1% | +3.5 pts | 581 here, 121,364 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 68.8% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | −5.8 pts | 940 here, 338,709 there |
| Month: February | 71.5% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | −10.9 pts | 543 here, 163,546 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 814 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → DCA cancelled 155 of 6,650 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 43. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 87.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 49 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 155 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
136 cancellations, 87.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
10 cancellations, 6.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
9 cancellations, 5.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
155 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
54 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 6,650 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.8% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.33% of the time and diverts 0.62% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,454 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 54 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,650 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.0% of the time, against 61.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 29.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 90.3% on time from 397 flights
- 8 AM: 90.4% on time from 173 flights
- 9 AM: 88.6% on time from 588 flights
- 10 AM: 86.8% on time from 780 flights
- 11 AM: 74.9% on time from 907 flights
- 12 PM: 76.8% on time from 172 flights
- 1 PM: 72.4% on time from 906 flights
- 2 PM: 71.4% on time from 234 flights
- 3 PM: 72.2% on time from 592 flights
- 4 PM: 66.0% on time from 201 flights
- 5 PM: 68.8% on time from 436 flights
- 6 PM: 59.6% on time from 680 flights
- 7 PM: 64.5% on time from 527 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TPA → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → DCA, at 54.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 61.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 4,382 | 74.1% | 2.62% | -5 min | 10.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,222 | 77.6% | 1.80% | -4 min | 6.6% |
American Airlines flew 66.4% of the 6,604 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 3.5 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.6%
- Feb: 71.5%
- Mar: 67.4%
- Apr: 80.5%
- May: 72.0%
- Jun: 74.6%
- Jul: 66.0%
- Aug: 75.0%
- Sep: 79.2%
- Oct: 83.1%
- Nov: 82.3%
- Dec: 75.0%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 72.2% from 191 flights
- August 2023: 80.0% from 190 flights
- September 2023: 84.7% from 185 flights
- October 2023: 88.9% from 190 flights
- November 2023: 86.4% from 178 flights
- December 2023: 81.4% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 81.1% from 192 flights
- February 2024: 79.1% from 182 flights
- March 2024: 66.3% from 195 flights
- April 2024: 84.0% from 179 flights
- May 2024: 67.6% from 182 flights
- June 2024: 75.3% from 149 flights
- July 2024: 62.7% from 150 flights
- August 2024: 69.5% from 150 flights
- September 2024: 76.1% from 146 flights
- October 2024: 85.5% from 147 flights
- November 2024: 83.1% from 172 flights
- December 2024: 73.2% from 190 flights
- January 2025: 82.8% from 185 flights
- February 2025: 62.7% from 172 flights
- March 2025: 64.1% from 190 flights
- April 2025: 76.7% from 175 flights
- May 2025: 72.8% from 177 flights
- June 2025: 71.3% from 175 flights
- July 2025: 59.6% from 181 flights
- August 2025: 74.6% from 176 flights
- September 2025: 75.9% from 172 flights
- October 2025: 74.7% from 173 flights
- November 2025: 77.6% from 195 flights
- December 2025: 70.9% from 201 flights
- January 2026: 81.0% from 205 flights
- February 2026: 71.9% from 195 flights
- March 2026: 71.3% from 218 flights
- April 2026: 80.6% from 180 flights
- May 2026: 75.7% from 176 flights
- June 2026: 77.2% from 176 flights
- July 2026: 68.5% from 177 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.9% against 72.9% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,650 TPA → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed