Route profile
DCA→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to Tampa, 814 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 18% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,646 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DCA → TPA arrives on time 76.1% of the time; the return trip, TPA → DCA, arrives on time 75.3% of the time.
DCA → TPA spends 25.6 minutes on the ground on an 814-mile trip: 19.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 5.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 91% of 4,023 comparable routes.
88.4% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 57.8% for 3–6 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to TPA struggles most at 4 PM: 49.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 19.7 points behind the 69.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 21.4 points.
DCA to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 95.3% arrive on time, 4.7 points ahead of the 90.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
Sunday is the day DCA to TPA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.4% on time where they average 74.6%, 4.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.4 points.
In February, DCA to TPA runs 8.5 points below routes of similar length, 73.9% on time to 82.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
DCA to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 49.3% | routes of similar length | 69.0% | −19.7 pts | 201 here, 129,437 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 95.3% | routes of similar length | 90.6% | +4.7 pts | 685 here, 168,446 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 70.4% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | −4.2 pts | 942 here, 338,707 there |
| Month: February | 73.9% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | −8.5 pts | 545 here, 163,544 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 814 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DCA → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DCA → TPA cancelled 152 of 6,646 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 44. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 81.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 54 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 152 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
124 cancellations, 81.6% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
16 cancellations, 10.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
12 cancellations, 7.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
152 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
57 min late
against a median of 6 min early
DCA → TPA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 63 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,646 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.29% of the time and diverts 0.26% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,477 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 57 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,646 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.4% of the time, against 57.8% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 30.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 95.3% on time from 697 flights
- 7 AM: 89.2% on time from 644 flights
- 8 AM: 83.0% on time from 983 flights
- 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 85.9% on time from 566 flights
- 11 AM: 78.2% on time from 478 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 74.9% on time from 345 flights
- 2 PM: 70.4% on time from 495 flights
- 3 PM: 62.0% on time from 514 flights
- 4 PM: 49.3% on time from 206 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 54.8% on time from 289 flights
- 7 PM: 64.6% on time from 1,050 flights
- 8 PM: 69.5% on time from 134 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why DCA → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → TPA, at 53.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.4% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 57.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 4,378 | 74.7% | 2.51% | -6 min | 10.6% |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,222 | 78.6% | 1.89% | -6 min | 8.0% |
American Airlines flew 66.3% of the 6,600 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 3.9 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA544 American Airlines | 7:51 PM | 621 | 62.1% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.6%
- Feb: 73.9%
- Mar: 72.5%
- Apr: 81.1%
- May: 74.4%
- Jun: 73.9%
- Jul: 67.2%
- Aug: 73.4%
- Sep: 81.5%
- Oct: 82.4%
- Nov: 82.9%
- Dec: 75.9%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 15.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 72.5% from 191 flights
- August 2023: 79.0% from 189 flights
- September 2023: 84.8% from 185 flights
- October 2023: 89.9% from 189 flights
- November 2023: 88.8% from 178 flights
- December 2023: 80.3% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 76.2% from 192 flights
- February 2024: 81.2% from 182 flights
- March 2024: 70.5% from 195 flights
- April 2024: 78.7% from 178 flights
- May 2024: 72.2% from 181 flights
- June 2024: 80.1% from 149 flights
- July 2024: 63.3% from 151 flights
- August 2024: 70.2% from 150 flights
- September 2024: 87.6% from 146 flights
- October 2024: 86.3% from 147 flights
- November 2024: 83.0% from 172 flights
- December 2024: 78.8% from 190 flights
- January 2025: 74.9% from 185 flights
- February 2025: 65.9% from 172 flights
- March 2025: 73.1% from 190 flights
- April 2025: 78.7% from 175 flights
- May 2025: 74.1% from 177 flights
- June 2025: 70.1% from 175 flights
- July 2025: 68.0% from 181 flights
- August 2025: 70.3% from 176 flights
- September 2025: 73.3% from 172 flights
- October 2025: 71.0% from 173 flights
- November 2025: 77.4% from 196 flights
- December 2025: 69.0% from 200 flights
- January 2026: 81.5% from 205 flights
- February 2026: 74.2% from 195 flights
- March 2026: 73.7% from 218 flights
- April 2026: 85.6% from 180 flights
- May 2026: 76.9% from 176 flights
- June 2026: 72.3% from 176 flights
- July 2026: 63.6% from 176 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.2% against 75.6% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,646 DCA → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed