Route profile
STL→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from St. Louis to Minneapolis, 448 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 70% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,003 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
STL → MSP arrives on time 82.2% of the time; the return trip, MSP → STL, arrives on time 82.0% of the time.
STL → MSP spends 18.8 minutes on the ground on a 448-mile trip: 12.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at STL and 6.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where STL to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
STL to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 5 PM: 82.8% arrive on time, 12.9 points ahead of the 69.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13 points.
STL to MSP struggles most at 10 PM: 55.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.7 points behind the 67.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 16.2 points.
STL to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 81.6% on time to their 74.9%, a 6.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
May is kinder to STL to MSP than to routes of similar length: 84.2% on time against 76.1%, 8.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on STL to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 87.2% on time here, 81.5% there, 5.7 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.7 points.
STL to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 82.8% | routes of similar length | 69.9% | +12.9 pts | 711 here, 113,431 there |
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 55.5% | routes of similar length | 67.2% | −11.7 pts | 173 here, 35,164 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 81.6% | routes of similar length | 74.9% | +6.7 pts | 814 here, 232,681 there |
| Month: May | 84.2% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | +8.1 pts | 486 here, 133,800 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 87.2% | routes of similar length | 81.5% | +5.7 pts | 3,285 here, 263,722 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 448 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
35 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 6,003 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from STL.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 30% | High risk |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.77% of the time and diverts 0.03% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,955 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 35 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,003 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
STL → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.2% of the time, against 61.2% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 30.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.2% on time from 1,127 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 90.6% on time from 224 flights
- 9 AM: 90.2% on time from 176 flights
- 10 AM: 88.0% on time from 1,060 flights
- 11 AM: 84.4% on time from 388 flights
- 12 PM: 76.3% on time from 137 flights
- 1 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 78.6% on time from 741 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 82.8% on time from 715 flights
- 6 PM: 70.9% on time from 200 flights
- 7 PM: 63.9% on time from 134 flights
- 8 PM: 75.4% on time from 291 flights
- 9 PM: 64.4% on time from 311 flights
- 10 PM: 55.5% on time from 173 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why STL → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for STL → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,314 | 87.2% | 0.81% | -13 min | 5.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,995 | 75.7% | 0.50% | -2 min | 6.2% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 594 | 76.8% | 1.52% | -7 min | 12.3% |
Delta Air Lines flew 56.1% of the 5,903 flights listed. SkyWest Airlines cancelled 1.52% of its flights here against 0.50% for Southwest Airlines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 11.5 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL1597 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 785 | 89.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 7.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.8%
- Feb: 85.3%
- Mar: 85.0%
- Apr: 85.8%
- May: 84.2%
- Jun: 73.0%
- Jul: 71.5%
- Aug: 82.8%
- Sep: 86.3%
- Oct: 88.4%
- Nov: 87.9%
- Dec: 79.4%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 16.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 68.0% from 169 flights
- August 2023: 83.4% from 176 flights
- September 2023: 88.3% from 162 flights
- October 2023: 90.6% from 170 flights
- November 2023: 92.0% from 163 flights
- December 2023: 91.1% from 158 flights
- January 2024: 80.4% from 167 flights
- February 2024: 89.8% from 157 flights
- March 2024: 90.0% from 171 flights
- April 2024: 92.3% from 168 flights
- May 2024: 80.6% from 171 flights
- June 2024: 72.6% from 168 flights
- July 2024: 66.9% from 173 flights
- August 2024: 79.8% from 173 flights
- September 2024: 89.8% from 166 flights
- October 2024: 91.3% from 177 flights
- November 2024: 88.1% from 159 flights
- December 2024: 77.3% from 172 flights
- January 2025: 79.4% from 146 flights
- February 2025: 80.7% from 145 flights
- March 2025: 88.2% from 170 flights
- April 2025: 82.7% from 151 flights
- May 2025: 84.0% from 145 flights
- June 2025: 76.9% from 144 flights
- July 2025: 70.6% from 146 flights
- August 2025: 85.4% from 159 flights
- September 2025: 81.2% from 170 flights
- October 2025: 81.9% from 138 flights
- November 2025: 82.8% from 134 flights
- December 2025: 68.6% from 144 flights
- January 2026: 82.6% from 150 flights
- February 2026: 85.0% from 149 flights
- March 2026: 77.2% from 186 flights
- April 2026: 82.5% from 183 flights
- May 2026: 87.8% from 172 flights
- June 2026: 69.9% from 165 flights
- July 2026: 79.3% from 186 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.4% against 82.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,003 STL → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed