Route profile
MSP→STL
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to St. Louis, 448 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 76% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,983 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → STL arrives on time 82.0% of the time; the return trip, STL → MSP, arrives on time 82.2% of the time.
MSP → STL spends 23.0 minutes on the ground on a 448-mile trip: 17.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 6.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at STL.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to STL differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to STL is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 PM: 82.8% arrive on time, 15.8 points ahead of the 67.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.1 points.
MSP to STL struggles most at 6 PM: 60.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.4 points behind the 68.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
MSP to STL holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 82.1% on time to their 74.9%, a 7.2 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.3 points.
May is kinder to MSP to STL than to routes of similar length: 85.4% on time against 76.1%, 9.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.2 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on MSP to STL than on its routes of similar length: 82.7% on time here, 78.3% there, 4.4 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.3 points.
MSP to STL against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 82.8% | routes of similar length | 67.0% | +15.8 pts | 122 here, 35,215 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 60.5% | routes of similar length | 68.9% | −8.4 pts | 124 here, 87,796 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 82.1% | routes of similar length | 74.9% | +7.2 pts | 808 here, 232,687 there |
| Month: May | 85.4% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | +9.3 pts | 486 here, 133,800 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 82.7% | routes of similar length | 78.3% | +4.4 pts | 1,961 here, 477,681 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 448 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
35 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 5,983 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at STL after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.77% of the time and diverts 0.13% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,929 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 35 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,983 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → STL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.3% of the time, against 72.9% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 21.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 97.0% on time from 339 flights
- 6 AM: 97.7% on time from 303 flights
- 7 AM: 92.0% on time from 227 flights
- 8 AM: 92.3% on time from 705 flights
- 9 AM: 88.5% on time from 411 flights
- 10 AM: 77.8% on time from 188 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 83.9% on time from 447 flights
- 1 PM: 77.5% on time from 459 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 79.0% on time from 951 flights
- 4 PM: 67.7% on time from 287 flights
- 5 PM: 62.4% on time from 218 flights
- 6 PM: 60.5% on time from 126 flights
- 7 PM: 77.9% on time from 145 flights
- 8 PM: 76.1% on time from 260 flights
- 9 PM: 77.4% on time from 723 flights
- 10 PM: 82.8% on time from 122 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → STL runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → STL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,313 | 82.5% | 0.88% | -10 min | 6.2% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,975 | 82.7% | 0.51% | -7 min | 4.8% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 595 | 76.0% | 1.18% | -5 min | 9.9% |
Delta Air Lines flew 56.3% of the 5,883 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 6.7 percentage points more often than SkyWest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL1609 Delta Air Lines | 9:50 PM | 783 | 75.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 6.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.6%
- Feb: 87.5%
- Mar: 79.8%
- Apr: 84.3%
- May: 85.4%
- Jun: 73.6%
- Jul: 71.6%
- Aug: 83.6%
- Sep: 87.8%
- Oct: 87.1%
- Nov: 87.3%
- Dec: 78.9%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 16.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 73.8% from 169 flights
- August 2023: 89.7% from 176 flights
- September 2023: 87.0% from 162 flights
- October 2023: 86.5% from 170 flights
- November 2023: 93.3% from 163 flights
- December 2023: 89.2% from 158 flights
- January 2024: 80.0% from 159 flights
- February 2024: 91.3% from 149 flights
- March 2024: 81.0% from 169 flights
- April 2024: 84.5% from 168 flights
- May 2024: 81.3% from 171 flights
- June 2024: 73.2% from 168 flights
- July 2024: 64.2% from 173 flights
- August 2024: 80.9% from 173 flights
- September 2024: 92.2% from 166 flights
- October 2024: 93.1% from 177 flights
- November 2024: 83.6% from 159 flights
- December 2024: 77.8% from 171 flights
- January 2025: 81.9% from 145 flights
- February 2025: 84.0% from 145 flights
- March 2025: 83.4% from 170 flights
- April 2025: 84.1% from 151 flights
- May 2025: 85.5% from 145 flights
- June 2025: 77.6% from 144 flights
- July 2025: 68.1% from 146 flights
- August 2025: 79.7% from 159 flights
- September 2025: 84.1% from 170 flights
- October 2025: 80.4% from 138 flights
- November 2025: 84.3% from 134 flights
- December 2025: 68.6% from 144 flights
- January 2026: 80.1% from 150 flights
- February 2026: 87.2% from 149 flights
- March 2026: 75.4% from 186 flights
- April 2026: 84.2% from 183 flights
- May 2026: 89.4% from 172 flights
- June 2026: 70.6% from 165 flights
- July 2026: 78.8% from 186 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.3% against 82.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,983 MSP → STL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed