Route profile
SNA→SMF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Santa Ana to Sacramento, 404 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 93% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,981 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
SNA → SMF arrives on time 85.1% of the time; the return trip, SMF → SNA, arrives on time 85.9% of the time.
SNA → SMF spends 16.7 minutes on the ground on a 404-mile trip: 12.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SNA and 4.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 97% of 3,357 comparable routes.
89.9% on time in its best month (January) against 81.1% in its worst (June).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SNA to SMF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SNA to SMF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 80.0% arrive on time, 11.1 points ahead of the 68.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.2 points.
SNA to SMF holds up on Mondays better than routes of similar length do: 87.7% on time to their 77.5%, a 10.2 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 10.5 points.
July is kinder to SNA to SMF than to routes of similar length: 83.4% on time against 70.4%, 13 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 13.7 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on SNA to SMF than on its routes of similar length: 85.1% on time here, 78.7% there, 6.4 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
SNA to SMF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 68.9% | +11.1 pts | 476 here, 85,631 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 87.7% | routes of similar length | 77.5% | +10.2 pts | 1,120 here, 216,138 there |
| Month: July | 83.4% | routes of similar length | 70.4% | +13.0 pts | 775 here, 157,968 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 85.1% | routes of similar length | 78.7% | +6.4 pts | 6,921 here, 472,451 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 404 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why SNA → SMF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
SNA → SMF cancelled 56 of 6,981 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 125. The reason filed most often was the airline, 62.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 199 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 56 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
35 cancellations, 62.5% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
15 cancellations, 26.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
6 cancellations, 10.7% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
56 coded cancellations were recorded on SNA → SMF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
24 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 6,981 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SMF after arriving from SNA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 8.1% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.5% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.80% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,921 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 24 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,981 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SNA → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 96.6% of the time, against 76.7% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 19.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 98.5% on time from 341 flights
- 7 AM: 96.6% on time from 658 flights
- 8 AM: 95.1% on time from 449 flights
- 9 AM: 91.7% on time from 493 flights
- 10 AM: 92.1% on time from 369 flights
- 11 AM: 90.4% on time from 440 flights
- 12 PM: 87.1% on time from 436 flights
- 1 PM: 83.0% on time from 473 flights
- 2 PM: 78.7% on time from 419 flights
- 3 PM: 72.8% on time from 236 flights
- 4 PM: 77.8% on time from 521 flights
- 5 PM: 77.4% on time from 476 flights
- 6 PM: 75.9% on time from 590 flights
- 7 PM: 80.0% on time from 480 flights
- 8 PM: 79.2% on time from 562 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why SNA → SMF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
screening or terminal security incidents
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SNA → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SNA → SMF, at 69.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 96.6% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 76.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,981 | 85.1% | 0.80% | -6 min | 3.5% |
Other ways to fly Los Angeles to Sacramento
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAX→SMF Los Angeles to Sacramento | 16,587 | 86.1% | 0.27% | -9 min | 85 |
| SNA→SMF this route Santa Ana to Sacramento | 6,981 | 85.1% | 0.80% | -6 min | 84 |
Flying to SMF from the Los Angeles area? Compare SNA, LAX, BUR, ONT for SMF, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 89.9%
- Feb: 88.5%
- Mar: 86.1%
- Apr: 82.4%
- May: 84.9%
- Jun: 81.1%
- Jul: 83.4%
- Aug: 84.2%
- Sep: 85.1%
- Oct: 83.3%
- Nov: 87.6%
- Dec: 85.9%
June is historically the weakest month and January the strongest, a spread of 8.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 80.0% from 186 flights
- August 2023: 76.5% from 189 flights
- September 2023: 85.5% from 179 flights
- October 2023: 77.4% from 187 flights
- November 2023: 91.4% from 188 flights
- December 2023: 92.7% from 192 flights
- January 2024: 85.6% from 195 flights
- February 2024: 85.6% from 183 flights
- March 2024: 82.0% from 194 flights
- April 2024: 83.5% from 182 flights
- May 2024: 90.4% from 187 flights
- June 2024: 81.9% from 179 flights
- July 2024: 85.6% from 181 flights
- August 2024: 84.2% from 186 flights
- September 2024: 86.7% from 180 flights
- October 2024: 86.2% from 181 flights
- November 2024: 88.7% from 187 flights
- December 2024: 78.7% from 199 flights
- January 2025: 93.8% from 178 flights
- February 2025: 89.1% from 166 flights
- March 2025: 85.9% from 193 flights
- April 2025: 82.7% from 180 flights
- May 2025: 79.5% from 185 flights
- June 2025: 79.2% from 204 flights
- July 2025: 79.8% from 209 flights
- August 2025: 90.9% from 209 flights
- September 2025: 83.3% from 206 flights
- October 2025: 86.4% from 185 flights
- November 2025: 82.8% from 192 flights
- December 2025: 86.6% from 198 flights
- January 2026: 90.8% from 174 flights
- February 2026: 91.0% from 166 flights
- March 2026: 90.5% from 195 flights
- April 2026: 81.0% from 189 flights
- May 2026: 84.9% from 192 flights
- June 2026: 82.4% from 189 flights
- July 2026: 87.9% from 216 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 86.5% against 84.3% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,981 SNA → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed