SMF → SNA Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · SMFNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 13:53 UTC

Sacramento airport profile →

Destination · SNANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 13:53 UTC

Santa Ana airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

88/ 100Strong

Better than 97% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 6,981 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time

On-time arrivals

85.9%

5,961 of 6,942

Cancellation rate

0.49%

34 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-7 min

Average -0.7 min

Severe delays

2.8%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

43 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

6,981

1 carrier

SMF → SNA arrives on time 85.9% of the time; the return trip, SNA → SMF, arrives on time 85.1% of the time.

SMF → SNA spends 15.2 minutes on the ground on a 404-mile trip: 10.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SMF and 4.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at SNA.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 100% of 3,357 comparable routes.

88.8% on time in its best month (September) against 82.9% in its worst (October).

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.

What sets this route apart

Where SMF to SNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.

SMF to SNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 86.9% arrive on time, 18 points ahead of the 68.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 19.1 points.

SMF to SNA holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 84.3% on time to their 74.9%, a 9.4 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 9.5 points.

July is kinder to SMF to SNA than to routes of similar length: 84.5% on time against 70.4%, 14.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 14.8 points.

Southwest Airlines does better on SMF to SNA than on its routes of similar length: 85.9% on time here, 78.7% there, 7.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.

SMF to SNA against comparable routes

July 2023 – July 2026

Where SMF to SNA differs most from comparable routes, with the group each figure is compared with and the flights behind it
Measure	This route	Compared with	Them	Gap	Flights behind it
Hour: 7 PM departures	86.9%	routes of similar length	68.9%	+18.0 pts	496 here, 85,611 there
Weekday: Sunday	84.3%	routes of similar length	74.9%	+9.4 pts	1,090 here, 210,124 there
Month: July	84.5%	routes of similar length	70.4%	+14.1 pts	782 here, 157,961 there
Airline: Southwest Airlines	85.9%	routes of similar length	78.7%	+7.2 pts	6,942 here, 472,430 there

Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 404 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

22 min late

against a median of 7 min early

Arrived an hour or more late2.8%

Typical delay when late43 min

Cancelled0.49%

Landed somewhere else0.07%

Percentiles over 6,981 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at SNA after arriving from SMF.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, SMF → SNA arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	29%	High risk
45 min	13%	Some risk
60 min	7.0%	Some risk
90 min	2.8%	Low risk
120 min	1.1%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.49% of the time and diverts 0.07% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 6,942 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 22 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,981 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

SMF → SNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.1% of the time, against 80.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 13.9 percentage points.

By departure window

5–9 AM94.1%

9 AM–12 PM90.7%

12–3 PM82.0%

3–6 PM80.2%

6–9 PM82.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why SMF → SNA runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft64.1%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline29.2%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control6.2%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Security0.3%

screening or terminal security incidents

Weather0.2%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SMF → SNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SMF → SNA, at 64.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.1% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 80.2%.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Southwest Airlines	6,981	85.9%	0.49%	-7 min	2.8%

Other ways to fly Sacramento to Los Angeles

Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.

Other ways to fly Sacramento to Los Angeles
Route	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Score
SMF→LAX Sacramento to Los Angeles	16,602	86.8%	0.27%	-9 min	86
SMF→SNA this route Sacramento to Santa Ana	6,981	85.9%	0.49%	-7 min	88

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon86.8%

Tue90.4%

Wed89.7%

Thu82.5%

Fri82.2%

Sat86.9%

Sun84.3%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 8.2 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

October is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 5.9 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 84.4% against 86.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.0 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,981 SMF → SNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

SMF airport SNA airport Return direction SNA → SMF

SMF→SNA

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

What sets this route apart

SMF to SNA against comparable routes

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By departure window

By departure hour

Why SMF → SNA runs late

Airlines on this route

Other ways to fly Sacramento to Los Angeles

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology