Route profile
SMF→SFO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Sacramento to San Francisco, 86 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 33% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,626 flights. How this is calculated
SMF → SFO arrives on time 74.8% of the time; the return trip, SFO → SMF, arrives on time 82.0% of the time, a 7.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SMF → SFO spends 31.9 minutes on the ground on an 86-mile trip: 24.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SMF and 7.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at SFO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability on this route has fallen unusually sharply over the past year, a bigger swing than 99% of 5,368 comparable routes.
63.4% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 81.4% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), a change of 18.0 points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SMF to SFO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SMF to SFO struggles most at 8 PM: 53.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 20.3 points behind the 73.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.1 points.
Wednesday is the day SMF to SFO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.0% on time where they average 85.1%, 12.1 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.8 points.
In April, SMF to SFO runs 17.1 points below routes of similar length, 69.3% on time to 86.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 10.6 points.
SkyWest Airlines’ flights on SMF to SFO arrive on time 74.2% of the time, 8.5 points below the 82.7% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
SMF to SFO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 53.3% | routes of similar length | 73.6% | −20.3 pts | 420 here, 273 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 73.0% | routes of similar length | 85.1% | −12.1 pts | 525 here, 2,246 there |
| Month: April | 69.3% | routes of similar length | 86.4% | −17.1 pts | 293 here, 1,248 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 74.2% | routes of similar length | 82.7% | −8.5 pts | 3,483 here, 12,362 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 86 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,626 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SFO after arriving from SMF.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.27% of the time and diverts 0.03% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,579 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,626 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SMF → SFO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.2% of the time, against 53.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 38.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.7% on time from 124 flights
- 6 AM: 91.9% on time from 820 flights
- 7 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 70.4% on time from 808 flights
- 11 AM: 67.1% on time from 231 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 76.1% on time from 570 flights
- 3 PM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 77.0% on time from 205 flights
- 6 PM to 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 53.3% on time from 433 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why SMF → SFO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SMF → SFO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SkyWest Airlines | 3,530 | 74.2% | 1.30% | -6 min | 8.1% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| OO5248 SkyWest Airlines | 10:05 AM | 901 | 66.1% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 11.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.9%
- Feb: 72.4%
- Mar: 77.5%
- Apr: 69.3%
- May: 69.2%
- Jun: 68.6%
- Jul: 78.0%
- Aug: 80.1%
- Sep: 79.5%
- Oct: 76.3%
- Nov: 71.7%
- Dec: 73.5%
June is historically the weakest month and August the strongest, a spread of 11.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (87)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (91)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (91)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (68)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (60)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (61)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (60)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (74)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (95)
- October 2024: 82.0% from 122 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (118)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (94)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (98)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- October 2025: 63.4% from 145 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (106)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (114)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (92)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 63.4% against 81.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 18.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,626 SMF → SFO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed