Route profile
SFO→SMF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from San Francisco to Sacramento, 86 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 63% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,627 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
SFO → SMF arrives on time 82.0% of the time; the return trip, SMF → SFO, arrives on time 74.8% of the time, a 7.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SFO → SMF spends 30.0 minutes on the ground on an 86-mile trip: 23.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SFO and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where SFO to SMF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SFO to SMF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 PM: 83.9% arrive on time, 12.4 points ahead of the 71.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.4 points.
SFO to SMF struggles most at 10 PM: 74.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.2 points behind the 80.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
April is kinder to SFO to SMF than to routes of similar length: 88.5% on time against 81.8%, 6.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
SkyWest Airlines does better on SFO to SMF than on its routes of similar length: 82.4% on time here, 80.4% there, 2 points apart.
SFO to SMF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 83.9% | routes of similar length | 71.5% | +12.4 pts | 168 here, 438 there |
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 74.6% | routes of similar length | 80.8% | −6.2 pts | 582 here, 1,013 there |
| Month: April | 88.5% | routes of similar length | 81.8% | +6.7 pts | 296 here, 1,245 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 82.4% | routes of similar length | 80.4% | +2.0 pts | 3,487 here, 12,358 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 86 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
34 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 3,627 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SMF after arriving from SFO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 35% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.19% of the time and diverts 0.03% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,583 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 34 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,627 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SFO → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.3% of the time, against 76.6% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 10.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 87.3% on time from 905 flights
- 9 AM: 78.2% on time from 135 flights
- 10 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 81.1% on time from 443 flights
- 1 PM: 85.2% on time from 176 flights
- 2 PM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 79.0% on time from 297 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 86.0% on time from 455 flights
- 7 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 83.9% on time from 169 flights
- 10 PM: 74.6% on time from 586 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why SFO → SMF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SFO → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SkyWest Airlines | 3,531 | 82.4% | 1.22% | -6 min | 6.2% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 9.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.1%
- Feb: 79.7%
- Mar: 81.5%
- Apr: 88.5%
- May: 80.9%
- Jun: 82.4%
- Jul: 78.2%
- Aug: 86.3%
- Sep: 84.8%
- Oct: 85.4%
- Nov: 79.1%
- Dec: 75.4%
December is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 13.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (87)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (91)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (68)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (60)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (60)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (75)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (95)
- October 2024: 81.0% from 121 flights
- November 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (98)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (95)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (119)
- October 2025: 83.3% from 144 flights
- November 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (105)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (118)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (113)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (92)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.8% against 82.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,627 SFO → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed