Route profile
SMF→DFW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Sacramento to Dallas–Fort Worth, 1,431 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 30% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,314 flights. How this is calculated
SMF → DFW arrives on time 79.2% of the time; the return trip, DFW → SMF, arrives on time 67.0% of the time, a 12.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SMF → DFW spends 25.0 minutes on the ground on a 1,431-mile trip: 13.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SMF and 11.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where SMF to DFW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SMF to DFW struggles most at 10 AM: 68.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12.4 points behind the 80.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.2 points.
SMF to DFW holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 81.2% on time to their 76.6%, a 4.6 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.4 points.
February is kinder to SMF to DFW than to routes of similar length: 88.5% on time against 81.5%, 7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
American Airlines does better on SMF to DFW than on its routes of similar length: 79.6% on time here, 74.8% there, 4.8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
SMF to DFW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 68.5% | routes of similar length | 80.9% | −12.4 pts | 184 here, 85,111 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 81.2% | routes of similar length | 76.6% | +4.6 pts | 764 here, 234,490 there |
| Month: February | 88.5% | routes of similar length | 81.5% | +7.0 pts | 365 here, 112,315 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 79.6% | routes of similar length | 74.8% | +4.8 pts | 5,088 here, 282,880 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,431 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why SMF → DFW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
SMF → DFW cancelled 119 of 5,314 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 45. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 88.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 51 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 119 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
105 cancellations, 88.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
14 cancellations, 11.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
119 coded cancellations were recorded on SMF → DFW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 5,314 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DFW after arriving from SMF.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.3% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.24% of the time and diverts 0.77% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,154 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,314 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SMF → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.1% of the time, against 68.1% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 19.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 88.1% on time from 197 flights
- 6 AM: 89.9% on time from 1,091 flights
- 7 AM: 81.1% on time from 672 flights
- 8 AM: 89.9% on time from 289 flights
- 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 68.5% on time from 189 flights
- 11 AM: 78.8% on time from 915 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 68.0% on time from 1,034 flights
- 3 PM to 10 PM: too few flights to score
- 11 PM: 77.4% on time from 757 flights
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why SMF → DFW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SMF → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SMF → DFW, at 48.9%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 87.1% of the time and 12–3 PM departures 68.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 5,246 | 79.6% | 2.23% | -9 min | 8.0% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA1544 American Airlines | 6:00 AM | 1,126 | 89.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.9%
- Feb: 88.5%
- Mar: 82.4%
- Apr: 77.5%
- May: 74.3%
- Jun: 71.2%
- Jul: 69.3%
- Aug: 74.2%
- Sep: 87.9%
- Oct: 86.0%
- Nov: 84.1%
- Dec: 83.1%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 19.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 74.0% from 149 flights
- August 2023: 79.5% from 154 flights
- September 2023: 92.0% from 137 flights
- October 2023: 87.9% from 145 flights
- November 2023: 89.4% from 142 flights
- December 2023: 84.8% from 139 flights
- January 2024: 74.8% from 142 flights
- February 2024: 93.2% from 133 flights
- March 2024: 77.8% from 147 flights
- April 2024: 68.9% from 140 flights
- May 2024: 68.1% from 154 flights
- June 2024: 75.0% from 161 flights
- July 2024: 57.3% from 169 flights
- August 2024: 67.5% from 164 flights
- September 2024: 87.0% from 131 flights
- October 2024: 89.5% from 153 flights
- November 2024: 80.3% from 142 flights
- December 2024: 82.0% from 140 flights
- January 2025: 83.5% from 137 flights
- February 2025: 84.4% from 124 flights
- March 2025: 83.6% from 151 flights
- April 2025: 81.1% from 150 flights
- May 2025: 75.3% from 153 flights
- June 2025: 64.6% from 162 flights
- July 2025: 74.1% from 164 flights
- August 2025: 76.3% from 157 flights
- September 2025: 84.0% from 122 flights
- October 2025: 80.3% from 145 flights
- November 2025: 82.3% from 129 flights
- December 2025: 82.5% from 137 flights
- January 2026: 82.1% from 131 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2026: 86.3% from 134 flights
- April 2026: 82.4% from 135 flights
- May 2026: 79.4% from 143 flights
- June 2026: 74.8% from 137 flights
- July 2026: 72.8% from 149 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.6% against 79.0% in the 12 months before — improving by 1.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,314 SMF → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed