Route profile
DFW→SMF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Dallas–Fort Worth to Sacramento, 1,431 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 4% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,316 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DFW → SMF arrives on time 67.0% of the time; the return trip, SMF → DFW, arrives on time 79.2% of the time, a 12.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DFW → SMF spends 24.4 minutes on the ground on a 1,431-mile trip: 18.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DFW and 5.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 97% of 3,357 comparable routes.
78.9% on time in a typical February, against 51.5% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DFW to SMF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DFW to SMF struggles most at 7 PM: 47.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 19.4 points behind the 66.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 20.3 points.
Monday is the day DFW to SMF slips furthest against routes of similar length, 63.0% on time where they average 77.1%, 14.1 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 14.3 points.
In August, DFW to SMF runs 20.3 points below routes of similar length, 56.3% on time to 76.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 20.2 points.
American Airlines’ flights on DFW to SMF arrive on time 67.2% of the time, 7.8 points below the 75.0% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
DFW to SMF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 47.5% | routes of similar length | 66.9% | −19.4 pts | 158 here, 75,086 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 63.0% | routes of similar length | 77.1% | −14.1 pts | 746 here, 236,029 there |
| Month: August | 56.3% | routes of similar length | 76.6% | −20.3 pts | 467 here, 132,091 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 67.2% | routes of similar length | 75.0% | −7.8 pts | 5,133 here, 282,835 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,431 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DFW → SMF flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DFW → SMF cancelled 109 of 5,316 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 49. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 93.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 52 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 109 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
102 cancellations, 93.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
7 cancellations, 6.4% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
109 coded cancellations were recorded on DFW → SMF; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
72 min late
against a median of 0 min early
DFW → SMF has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 0 min early, but the worst tenth are 72 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 5,316 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SMF after arriving from DFW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 49% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 60 min | 22% | High risk |
| 90 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.05% of the time and diverts 0.09% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,202 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 72 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,316 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DFW → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 82.9% of the time, against 57.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 25.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 83.1% on time from 1,059 flights
- 9 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 75.6% on time from 951 flights
- 12 PM: 75.1% on time from 173 flights
- 1 PM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 55.2% on time from 204 flights
- 5 PM: 59.5% on time from 802 flights
- 6 PM: 63.4% on time from 125 flights
- 7 PM: 47.5% on time from 161 flights
- 8 PM: 61.5% on time from 331 flights
- 9 PM: 63.6% on time from 707 flights
- 10 PM: 51.6% on time from 675 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DFW → SMF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DFW → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DFW → SMF, at 49.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 82.9% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 57.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 5,247 | 67.2% | 2.08% | 0 min | 12.6% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 71.0%
- Feb: 78.9%
- Mar: 73.7%
- Apr: 68.7%
- May: 60.3%
- Jun: 56.3%
- Jul: 51.5%
- Aug: 56.3%
- Sep: 72.9%
- Oct: 74.7%
- Nov: 75.7%
- Dec: 75.6%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 27.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 51.4% from 149 flights
- August 2023: 57.5% from 154 flights
- September 2023: 68.6% from 137 flights
- October 2023: 77.3% from 145 flights
- November 2023: 81.7% from 142 flights
- December 2023: 80.0% from 140 flights
- January 2024: 65.2% from 142 flights
- February 2024: 82.1% from 134 flights
- March 2024: 68.8% from 147 flights
- April 2024: 70.1% from 140 flights
- May 2024: 51.4% from 154 flights
- June 2024: 67.9% from 161 flights
- July 2024: 41.0% from 169 flights
- August 2024: 56.2% from 164 flights
- September 2024: 78.6% from 131 flights
- October 2024: 75.7% from 153 flights
- November 2024: 73.6% from 143 flights
- December 2024: 73.1% from 139 flights
- January 2025: 76.0% from 137 flights
- February 2025: 82.1% from 124 flights
- March 2025: 75.7% from 151 flights
- April 2025: 68.0% from 150 flights
- May 2025: 58.4% from 153 flights
- June 2025: 52.2% from 162 flights
- July 2025: 55.6% from 164 flights
- August 2025: 55.3% from 156 flights
- September 2025: 71.7% from 122 flights
- October 2025: 70.9% from 145 flights
- November 2025: 71.2% from 129 flights
- December 2025: 73.5% from 137 flights
- January 2026: 72.4% from 131 flights
- February 2026: too few flights to score (112)
- March 2026: 76.9% from 134 flights
- April 2026: 68.1% from 136 flights
- May 2026: 71.2% from 143 flights
- June 2026: 46.9% from 137 flights
- July 2026: 58.8% from 149 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 67.0% against 68.0% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,316 DFW → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed