Route profile
SFO→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from San Francisco to Raleigh–Durham, 2,400 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 98% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,363 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
SFO → RDU arrives on time 88.1% of the time; the return trip, RDU → SFO, arrives on time 80.5% of the time, a 7.6-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SFO → RDU spends 28.9 minutes on the ground on a 2,400-mile trip: 23.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SFO and 5.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route stays close to typical even on its worst days, a smaller gap than 95% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 10 min early, and the worst tenth are only 29 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SFO to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SFO to RDU is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 1 PM: 90.8% arrive on time, 15.2 points ahead of the 75.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.7 points.
SFO to RDU holds up on Mondays better than routes of similar length do: 90.1% on time to their 78.2%, a 11.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 12.9 points.
February is kinder to SFO to RDU than to routes of similar length: 93.6% on time against 80.5%, 13.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 12.2 points.
United Airlines does better on SFO to RDU than on its routes of similar length: 88.1% on time here, 81.2% there, 6.9 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 8.2 points.
SFO to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 90.8% | routes of similar length | 75.6% | +15.2 pts | 173 here, 56,435 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 90.1% | routes of similar length | 78.2% | +11.9 pts | 352 here, 157,953 there |
| Month: February | 93.6% | routes of similar length | 80.5% | +13.1 pts | 140 here, 71,530 there |
| Airline: United Airlines | 88.1% | routes of similar length | 81.2% | +6.9 pts | 2,346 here, 238,905 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,400 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
19 min late
against a median of 10 min early
Percentiles over 2,363 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from SFO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 27% | High risk |
| 45 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 6.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.5% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.42% of the time and diverts 0.30% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,346 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 19 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,363 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SFO → RDU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.9% of the time, against 84.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 8.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 99.2% on time from 120 flights
- 8 AM: 90.0% on time from 266 flights
- 9 AM: 89.5% on time from 652 flights
- 10 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 90.8% on time from 175 flights
- 2 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 86.0% on time from 143 flights
- 10 PM: 85.2% on time from 256 flights
- 11 PM: 84.2% on time from 561 flights
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why SFO → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SFO → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SFO → RDU, at 47.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.9% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 84.7%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 2,363 | 88.1% | 0.42% | -10 min | 3.5% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 5.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 87.8%
- Feb: 93.6%
- Mar: 86.0%
- Apr: 93.2%
- May: 89.7%
- Jun: 86.2%
- Jul: 80.2%
- Aug: 85.2%
- Sep: 89.0%
- Oct: 90.5%
- Nov: 90.4%
- Dec: 89.5%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 13.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 90.0% against 88.5% in the 12 months before — improving by 1.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,363 SFO → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed